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Has EMU had any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?

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  • Adam Posen
  • Daniel Popov Gould

Abstract

We find in cross-sectional investigations that wage restraint is either unchanged or increased following EMU in the vast majority of countries. This contradicts the predictions of a widely-cited family of models of labor market bargaining. In those, Germany would have been expected to display the greatest decline in wage restraint post-EMU, and we find no indication of such a decline. The time-series evidence on Italy shows a significant increase in wage restraint after eurozone entry. This pattern is consistent with the models that emphasise the gains from monetary credibility. The eurozone increase in wage restraint is matched by the increase seen in the UK and Sweden after adopting inflation targeting, another means to credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Posen & Daniel Popov Gould, 2006. "Has EMU had any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1783, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1783
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    Cited by:

    1. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Wage restraint and monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 134-142, January.
    2. Gruener Hans Peter & Hayo Bernd & Hefeker Carsten, 2009. "Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
    3. Vincenzo Cuciniello, 2014. "Monetary and Labor Interactions in a Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 1-30, December.
    4. Ulf Söderström, 2010. "Reevaluating Swedish Membership in the European Monetary Union: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 379-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nicolas Canry & Arnaud Lechevalier, 2006. "Wage share variations in France and Germany since 1970: what does really matter?," Post-Print halshs-00140529, HAL.
    6. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 927, European Central Bank.
    7. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "The monetary policy consequences of enlargement," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(4), pages 29-34, December.
    9. Mikosch, Heiner & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2012. "Has the EMU reduced wage growth and unemployment? Testing a model of trade union behavior," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-37.
    10. Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2009. "When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe CEECs. Labour Market Institutions upon Euro Zone Accession," MPRA Paper 15045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Moïse Sidiropoulos & Blandine Zimmer, 2009. "Monetary Union Enlargement, Fiscal Policy, and Strategic Wage Setting," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 631-649, August.
    12. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "The monetary policy consequences of enlargement," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(04), pages 29-34, December.
    13. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "National prices and wage setting in a currency union," Working Paper Series 1058, European Central Bank.
    14. Nicolas Canry & Arnaud Lechevalier, 2006. "Wage share variations in France and Germany since 1970: what does really matter?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00140529, HAL.
    15. Paul Ramskogler, 2013. "The National–Transnational Wage-Setting Nexus in Europe: What have We Learned from the Early Years of Monetary Integration?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 916-930, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; wage bargaining; monetary credibility; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J58 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Public Policy

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