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Is European Monetary Policy Appropriate for the EMU Member Countries? A Counterfactual Analysis

  • Bernd Hayo

    (University of Marburg)

This paper analyses whether interest rate paths in the EMU member countries would have been different if the previous national central banks had not handed over monetary policy to the ECB. Using estimates of monetary policy reaction functions over the last 20 years before the formation of EMU, we derive long-run rules the relate interest rate setting to the expected one-year ahead inflation rate and the current output gap. These Taylor rules allow to derive long-run target rates which are employed in the simulation of counterfactual interest rate paths over the time period January 1999 to December 2004 and then compared to actual short-term interest rates in the euro area. It is found that for almost all EMU member countries euro area interest rates tend to be below the national target interest rates, even after explicitly accounting for a lower real interest rate in the EMU period, with Germany being the only exception.

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 36.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:36
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  1. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2006. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1123-1134.
  2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  3. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "Comparing Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200502, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  5. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  6. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May.
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  9. Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "Asymmetry in the EMS: Intentional or systemic?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 310-320, March.
  10. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
  11. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 55-59, October.
  12. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
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