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Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy

Author

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  • di Giovanni, Julian

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • McCrary, Justin

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Wachter, Till von

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. We compare this identification strategy to the vector autoregression approach, and give an interpretation of our estimates that is appropriate in a dynamic context. Moreover, we show that the difference between least squares and instrumental variables estimates provides bounds for the degree of endogeneity in monetary policy. The results confirm a considerable downward bias of estimates that do not account for potential forward-looking monetary policy decisions. The bias is higher for countries whose monetary policy was more independent of Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • di Giovanni, Julian & McCrary, Justin & Wachter, Till von, 2005. "Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 1495, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1495
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward looking bias; instrumental variables; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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