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Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy

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  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
  • Ms. Silvia Sgherri

Abstract

Extending recent theoretical contributions on sources of inflation inertia, we argue that monetary uncertainty accounts for sluggish expectations adjustment to nominal disturbances. Estimating a model in which rational individuals learn over time about shifts in U.S. monetary policy and the Phillips curve, we find strong evidence that this link exists. These results bring into question the standard approach for evaluating monetary rules by assuming unchanged private sector responses, help clarify the role of monetary stability in reducing output variability in the United States and elsewhere, and tell a subtle and dynamic story of the interaction between monetary policy and the supply side of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 2004/024, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam S. Posen & Daniel Popov Gould, 2007. "Has EMU Had Any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 7, pages 146-178, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007. "(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate," Working Paper Series 794, European Central Bank.
    3. Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007. "(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate," Working Paper Series 794, European Central Bank.
    4. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    5. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Benedetto Molinari, 2014. "Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 903-935, May.
    7. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/195, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2004/164, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2011. "Estimating Taylor rules in a credit channel environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 344-364.
    10. Otmar Issing, 2005. "Speeding up European Reform: A Master Plan for the Lisbon Process - The Implementation of the Lisbon Agenda: A political priority," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(2), pages 31-35, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; Inflation dynamics; Monetary policy; Kalman filter; reaction function; inflation inertia; coefficient estimate; uncertainty granger; inflation expectation; Inflation; Real interest rates; Output gap; Inflation persistence; Disinflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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