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Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the Economy

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Sgherri, Silvia

Abstract

Extending recent theoretical contributions on sources of inflation inertia, we argue that monetary policy uncertainty helps determine the sluggish adjustment of expectations to nominal disturbances. Estimating a model in which rational individuals learn over time about shifts in US monetary policy and the Phillips curve, we find strong evidence that this link exists. These results question the standard approach for evaluating monetary rules by assuming unchanged private sector responses, help clarify the role of monetary stability in reducing output variability in the US and elsewhere, and tell a subtle and dynamic story of the interaction between monetary policy and the supply-side of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4696
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 4675, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    3. Adam S. Posen & Daniel Popov Gould, 2007. "Has EMU Had Any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 7, pages 146-178, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007. "(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate," Working Paper Series 794, European Central Bank.
    5. Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007. "(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate," Working Paper Series 794, European Central Bank.
    6. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2011. "Estimating Taylor rules in a credit channel environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 344-364.
    8. Benedetto Molinari, 2014. "Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 903-935, May.
    9. Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2004/164, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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