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Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications

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  • Mr. Pau Rabanal

Abstract

This paper estimates Taylor-type interest rates for the United States allowing for both time and state dependence. It provides evidence that the coefficients of the Taylor rule change significantly over time, and that the behavior of the Federal Reserve over the cycle can be explained using a two-state switching regime model. During expansions, the Federal Reserve follows a rule that can be characterized as inflation targeting with a high degree of interest rate smoothing. During recessions, the Federal Reserve targets output growth and conducts policy in a more active manner. The implications of conducting this type of policy are analyzed in a small scale new Keynesian model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2004/164, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/164
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    10. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Filiz Unsal & Margarita Rubio, 2016. "Macroprudential Policies in Low-Income Countries," 2016 Meeting Papers 1230, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2005/077, International Monetary Fund.
    3. López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2013. "Interest rates, government purchases and the Taylor rule in recessions and expansions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 382-392.
    4. Lieb Lenard & Candelon Bertrand, 2015. "Testing for short-run threshold effects in a vector error-correction framework: a reappraisal of the stability of the US money demand," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 355-376, June.
    5. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    6. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta Reátegui, Vicente, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model: What is Important and What is Not," CEPR Discussion Papers 5957, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Thanassis Kazanas & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules And Business Cycle Conditions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 73-97, September.
    8. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
    9. Ramiro Sosa Navarro, 2010. "Fiscal Imbalances, Inflation and Sovereign Default Dynamics," Ensayos de Política Económica, Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina., vol. 1(4), pages 108-142, Octubre.
    10. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K van Dijk, 2024. "Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-074/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Alexander Perruchoud, 2009. "Estimating a Taylor Rule with Markov Switching Regimes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(2), pages 187-220, June.
    12. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    13. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    14. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    15. Santoro, Emiliano & Petrella, Ivan & Pfajfar, Damjan & Gaffeo, Edoardo, 2014. "Loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 19-36.
    16. Mahani Zainal Abidin, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Coordination in Asia: East Asian Infrastructure Investment Fund," Working Papers id:2960, eSocialSciences.
    17. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2011. "Estimating Taylor rules in a credit channel environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 344-364.
    18. Mahani Zainal Abidin, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Coordination in Asia : East Asian Infrastructure Investment Fund," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21870, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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