IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era

  • CINZIA ALCIDI
  • ALESSANDRO FLAMINI
  • ANDREA FRACASSO

This paper investigates policy deviations from linear Taylor rules motivated by the risk management approach followed by the Fed during the Greenspan era. We estimate a nonlinear monetary policy rule via a logistic smoothing transition regression model where policy-makers' judgment, proxied by economically meaningful variables, drives the transition across policy regimes. We find that ignoring judgment‐induced nonlinearities while estimating Taylor rules has remarkable costs in terms of fit: above 250 bps in 10 quarters. Although linear Taylor rules describe well the broad contours of monetary policy, they fail to detect relevant policy decisions driven by policy‐makers' judgment.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00777.x
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 309 (January)
Pages: 89-107

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:78:y:2011:i:309:p:89-107
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE

Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0427

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0013-0427

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Sala & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Fed and the Stock Market," Macroeconomics 0507001, EconWPA.
  2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
  5. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, 05.
  6. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
  7. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
  8. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Rules in the United States," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/10, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2005. "Monetary policy with judgment: forecast targeting," Working Paper Series 0476, European Central Bank.
  10. Özer Karagedikli & Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Do inflation targeting central banks behave asymmetrically? Evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
  12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  13. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  14. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  15. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  16. John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick, 2001. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 151, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Michael T. Owyang & Garey Ramey, 2003. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Working Papers 2001-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. William Poole, 2005. "The Fed's monetary policy rule," Speech 92, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  19. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  20. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  21. M Kesriyeli & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 44, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  22. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
  23. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
  24. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
  25. Gerlach-Kristen Petra, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, March.
  26. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  27. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  28. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle; Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 04/164, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 55-59, October.
  30. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2006. "The Greenspan Era: Discretion, Rather than Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 174-177, May.
  31. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  32. Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
  33. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2006. "The Greenspan Era: Discretion, Rather Than Rules," NBER Working Papers 12118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. English William B. & Nelson William R. & Sack Brian P., 2003. "Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:78:y:2011:i:309:p:89-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.