IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era

  • CINZIA ALCIDI
  • ALESSANDRO FLAMINI
  • ANDREA FRACASSO

This paper investigates policy deviations from linear Taylor rules motivated by the risk management approach followed by the Fed during the Greenspan era. We estimate a nonlinear monetary policy rule via a logistic smoothing transition regression model where policy-makers' judgment, proxied by economically meaningful variables, drives the transition across policy regimes. We find that ignoring judgment‐induced nonlinearities while estimating Taylor rules has remarkable costs in terms of fit: above 250 bps in 10 quarters. Although linear Taylor rules describe well the broad contours of monetary policy, they fail to detect relevant policy decisions driven by policy‐makers' judgment.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00777.x
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 309 (January)
Pages: 89-107

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:78:y:2011:i:309:p:89-107
Contact details of provider: Postal: Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0427

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0013-0427

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Duffy, John & Engle-Warnick, Jim, 2006. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1363-1377, August.
  2. M Kesriyeli & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 44, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2006. "The Greenspan Era: Discretion, Rather than Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 174-177, May.
  7. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Macroeconomics 0403009, EconWPA.
  8. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  9. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Sala & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Fed and the Stock Market," Macroeconomics 0507001, EconWPA.
  10. Michael Owyang & Garey Ramey, 2003. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Working Papers 2001-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 18-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
  13. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
  16. Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
  17. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Kim, Dong Heon & Denise R Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 121, Royal Economic Society.
  19. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
  20. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  21. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  22. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2006. "The Greenspan Era: Discretion, Rather Than Rules," NBER Working Papers 12118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, 05.
  24. Gerlach-Kristen Petra, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, March.
  25. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
  26. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
  27. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle; Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 04/164, International Monetary Fund.
  28. William Poole, 2005. "The Fed's monetary policy rule," Speech 92, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  29. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2009. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Rules In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 206-215, 04.
  30. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  31. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  32. Özer Karagedikli & Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Do inflation targeting central banks behave asymmetrically? Evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  33. English William B. & Nelson William R. & Sack Brian P., 2003. "Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, April.
  34. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:78:y:2011:i:309:p:89-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.