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Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach

Author

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  • John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick

Abstract

We use nonparametric, local regression and regression tree analysis to assess whether there exist multiple regimes in U.S. monetary policy over the period 1955:3-2000:2. We model U.S. monetary policy using a Taylor rule specification for the nominal interest rate target. By contrast with standard parametric tests for regime changes, the nonparametric methods we use allow the data to determine the dimensions on which to split the sample for purposes of estimating the coefficients of the Taylor rule. We also develop a procedure to assess the statistical significance of these splits in contrast to earlier applications of these techniques. Our findings suggest that there are indeed multiple regimes in U.S. monetary policy over the period examined. Furthermore, these regimes not exclusively characterized by periods of time, but may also depend on certain threshold values for inflation and the output gap. These findings yield further insights on the conduct of monetary policy over the period examined.

Suggested Citation

  • John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick, 2001. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 151, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:151
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    Cited by:

    1. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    2. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
    3. Goodhart, Lucy, 2015. "Brave new world? Macro prudential policy and the new political economy of The Federal Reserve," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60952, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    5. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2008. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 392-395, September.
    6. Alejandro Gaytán & Jesús González-García, 2007. "Cambios estructurales en el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria en México: un enfoque VAR no lineal," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 367-404, octubre-d.
    7. Benjamin D. Keen & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "How robust are popular models of nominal frictions?," Working Papers 0903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Saadi, Samir & Rahman, Abdul, 2008. "Evidence of non-stationary bias in scaling by square root of time: Implications for Value-at-Risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-289, July.
    9. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas Pearce, 2010. "Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 196-217, April.
    10. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Fluctuation dynamics in US interest rates and the role of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 163-169, September.
    11. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    12. repec:taf:emetrv:v:36:y:2017:i:6-9:p:667-698 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Keely, Louise C. & Tan, Chih Ming, 2008. "Understanding preferences for income redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 944-961, June.
    14. Oscar Díaz Q. & Marco Laguna V., 2007. "Factores que explican la reducción de las tasas pasivas de interés en el sistema bancario boliviano," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 331-366, octubre-d.
    15. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2013. "Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 54-81, October.
    16. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2015. "The Asymptotic Behaviour of the Residual Sum of Squares in Models with Multiple Break Points," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1504, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Engle-Warnick, Jim, 2003. "Inferring strategies from observed actions: a nonparametric, binary tree classification approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2151-2170, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; regime changes; nonparametric methods; regression trees; local linear regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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