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Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle

  • Vincenzo Atella

    (CEIS & Dipartimento SEFEMEQ - Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")

  • Marco Centoni

    (Dipartimento SEGES - Università del Molise)

  • Gianluca Cubadda

    (Dipartimento SEFEMEQ - Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")

This paper contributes to the literature on the role of technology shocks as source of the business cycle in two ways. First, we document that time-series of US productivity and hours are apparently affected by a structural break in the late 60’s, which is likely due to a major change in the monetary policy. Second, we show that the importance of demand shocks over the business cycle has sharply increased after the break.

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 105.

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Date of creation: 17 Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:105
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  1. Galí, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2007. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07041, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  3. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
  4. Candelon Bertrand & Cubadda Gianluca, 2005. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  5. Gali, J., 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," Working Papers 96-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick, 2001. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 151, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007.
  8. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Candelon, Bertrand & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "On the reliability of chow type test for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,95, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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