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National prices and wage setting in a currency union

  • Sánchez, Marcelo
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    Existing work on wage bargaining (as exemplified by Cukierman and Lippi, 2001) typically predicts more aggressive wage setting under monetary union. This insight has not been confirmed by the EMU experience, which has been characterised by wage moderation, thereby eliciting criticism from Posen and Gould (2006). The present paper formulates a model where, realistically, trade unions set wages with national prices in mind, deviating from Cukierman and Lippi (2001) who postulate that wages are set having area-wide prices in mind. For reasonable ranges of parameter values (and macroeconomic shocks), simulations show that a monetary union is found to elicit real wages that are broadly comparable to those obtained under monetary autonomy. The confidence bounds around these results are rather wide, in particular including scenarios of wage restraint. The paper also performs welfare comparisons concerning macroeconomic stabilisation in light of structural factors such as country size, the preference for price stability, aggregate demand slopes, labour substitutability across unions, the number of wage-setting institutions and the cross-country distribution of technology and demand shocks. JEL Classification: E50, E58, J50, J51

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    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1058.

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    Date of creation: May 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091058
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    1. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 0927, European Central Bank.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2005. "International risk-sharing and the transmission of productivity shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 826, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2004. "Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US: a normalized supply-side system approach," Working Paper Series 0367, European Central Bank.
    4. Pau Rabanal & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 23-40, March.
    5. Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union: The role of catching up member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 29-40.
    6. S[empty]rensen, Jan Rose, 1991. "Political uncertainty and macroeconomic performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 377-381, December.
    7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521823081 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Adam Posen & Daniel Popov Gould, 2006. "Has EMU had any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1783, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    10. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Cukierman, A. & Lippi, F., 2000. "Labor Markets and Monetary Union: a Strategic Analysis," Papers 365, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    13. Gruner, Hans Peter & Hefeker, Carsten, 1999. " How Will EMU Affect Inflation and Unemployment in Europe?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(1), pages 33-47, March.
    14. Fabrizio Coricelli & Alex Cukierman & Alberto Dalmazzo, 2006. "Monetary Institutions, Monopolistic Competition, Unionized Labor Markets and Economic Performance," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 39-63, 03.
    15. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    16. Grüner, Hans Peter, 2002. "How Much Should Central Banks Talk? A New Argument," CEPR Discussion Papers 3194, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2007. "The long-term sucCESs of the neoclassical growth model," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 94-114, Spring.
    18. Jalava Jukka & Pohjola Matti & Ripatti Antti & Vilmunen Jouko, 2006. "Biased Technical Change and Capital-Labour Substitution in Finland, 1902-2003," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, April.
    19. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2008. "The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 369-388, 03.
    20. Christopher Erceg & Christopher Gust & David López-Salido, 2007. "The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 89-148 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 376-385, 04-05.
    22. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
    23. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Cukierman, Alex & Dalmazzo, Alberto, 2001. "Economic Performance and Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union with Imperfect Labour and Goods Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Gruner, Hans Peter, 2002. "How much should central banks talk?: A new argument," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 195-198, October.
    25. Ripatti, Antti & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2001. "Declining labour share – Evidence of a change in underlying production technology?," Research Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland.
    26. Marcelo Sánchez, 2008. "Implications of Monetary Union for Catching-up Member States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 371-390, July.
    27. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    28. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
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