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Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach

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  • Pau Rabanal
  • Juan Rubio-Ramírez

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Abstract

This paper estimates and compares four versions of the sticky price New Keynesian model for the Euro area, using a Bayesian approach as described in Rabanal and Rubio-Ramírez (2003). We find that the average duration of price contracts is between four and eight quarters, similar to the one estimated in the United States, while price indexation is found to be smaller. On the other hand, average duration of wage contracts is estimated to between one and two quarters, lower than the one found for the United States, while wage indexation is higher. Finally, the marginal likelihood indicates that the sticky price and sticky wage model of Erceg, Henderson, and Levin (2002), its wage indexation variant, and the baseline sticky price model with price indexation have similar data explanation power, while it positions the baseline sticky price model of Calvo at a lower level.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pau Rabanal & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 23-40, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:10:y:2008:i:1:p:23-40 DOI: 10.1007/s10108-007-9031-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, pages 35-58.
    2. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    4. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    5. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    6. S. Fabiani & M. Druant & I. Hernando & C. Kwapil & B. Landau & C. Loupias & F. Martins & T. Mathä & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & A. Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area : new survey evidence," Working Paper Research 76, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    8. Jordi Gali Garreta & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations; How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," IMF Working Papers 04/234, International Monetary Fund.
    9. María-Dolores Ramón & Vázquez Jesús, 2006. "How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? An Indirect Inference Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-51, September.
    10. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2001. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium economies to data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 281-313.
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    13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    15. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
    16. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nominal rigidities; Indexation; Bayesian econometrics; Model comparison; C11; C15; E31; E32;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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