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Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks


  • Canova, Fabio
  • Pappa, Evi


We study the effect of regional expenditure and revenue shocks on price dispersion in a monetary union using annual US state and quarterly EU data. We identify fiscal shocks using sign restrictions on the dynamics of expenditures, revenues, deficits and output. We construct two estimates for structural price dispersion dynamics, one for the average and one for each unit, which optimally weight the information contained in the data for all units. We find that fiscal shocks explain between 10-20% of the variability of price dispersion in the US and between 3-4% in the EU. On average, the predictions of standard theory are confirmed: expansionary fiscal disturbances produce positive price dispersion responses in both areas while distortionary balance budget shocks produce negative price responses. In about one third of the units, negative price dispersion responses to expansionary fiscal shocks are observed. Further, heterogeneities in shapes and peak responses are observed. Explanations for the puzzling features are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3746

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Wage restraint and monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 134-142, January.
    2. Hess Chung & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," NBER Working Papers 13425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Bofinger & Eric Mayer, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 291-305, July.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Artis, Michael J & Onorante, Luca, 2006. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 5684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. K. Peren Arin & Peter H. Helles & Murat Koyuncu & Otto F. M. Reich, 2016. "Should We Care About The Composition Of Tax-Based Stimulus Packages?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 430-445, July.
    7. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2525, Sciences Po.
    8. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    9. Henry, Jérôme & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 396, European Central Bank.
    10. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal constraints," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1391-1414, September.
    11. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2004. "What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 325, European Central Bank.
    12. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Margarida Duarte & Alexander L. Wolman, 2002. "Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals," International Finance Discussion Papers 746, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Jérôme Henry & Pablo Hernández de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconometrics models," Working Papers 0418, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    15. Duarte, Margarida & Wolman, Alexander L., 2008. "Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 384-401, March.
    16. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
    17. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 639-687, October.
    18. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2006. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A Comparative Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 257, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    21. António Afonso & Peter Claeys, 2006. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output – the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/26, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    22. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 603, European Central Bank.
    23. Massimo Giuliodori & Roel Beetsma, 2005. "What are the Trade Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis**," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 167-197, June.
    24. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2525 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "National prices and wage setting in a currency union," Working Paper Series 1058, European Central Bank.

    More about this item


    bayesian techniques; fiscal policy; price dispersions; supply effects;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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