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Pre-announcement and Timing - The Effects of a Government Expenditure Shock

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  • Alexander Kriwoluzky

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of a government expenditure shock on consumption and real wages. I identify the shock by exploiting its pre-announced nature, i.e. different signs of the responses in investment, hours worked and output during the announcement and after the realization of the shock. Since pre-announcement leads to a non-stationary moving average representation, I estimate and identify a VMA model. The identifying restrictions are derived from a DSGE model, which is estimated by matching the impulse response functions of the VMA model. Private consumption is found to respond negatively during the announcement period and positively after the realization. The reaction of real wages is significantly positive on impact, decreases during the announcement horizon, and is again significantly positive for two quarters after the realization.

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  • Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2009. "Pre-announcement and Timing - The Effects of a Government Expenditure Shock," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/40, European University Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2009/40
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Eric Leeper & Todd Walker, 2011. "Information Flows and News Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 55-71, January.
    3. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:2:p:206-231 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
    5. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 115-144, May.
    6. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508131350 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Francesco Furlanetto, 2009. "Fiscal stimulus in a credit crunch: the role of wage rigidity," Working Paper 2009/08, Norges Bank.
    9. Furlanetto, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and the role of wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 512-527, April.
    10. Sorge, Marco M., 2012. "News shocks or parametric indeterminacy? An observational equivalence result in linear rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-200.
    11. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Euro area monetary and fiscal policy tracking design in the time-frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy shock; Bayesian Estimation; DSGE model; Vector Autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General

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