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Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

  • Alexander Kriwoluzky

This paper shows how to identify the structural shocks of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) while simultaneously estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is not assumed to replicate the data-generating process. It proposes a framework for estimating the parameters of the VAR model and the DSGE model jointly: the VAR model is identified by sign restrictions derived from the DSGE model; the DSGE model is estimated by matching the corresponding impulse response functions.

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File URL: http://cadmus.eui.eu/dspace/bitstream/1814/12367/1/ECO2009_29.pdf
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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2009/29.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2009/29
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  1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  2. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006.
  3. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Nonnormal Residuals," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/25, European University Institute.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  7. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  8. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/23, European University Institute.
  9. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín & Uuskula, Lenno, 2010. "Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-258, June.
  10. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  11. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
  13. Harald Uhlig, 1997. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 59-74, January.
  14. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  16. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Working Papers 11212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2009. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/06, European University Institute.
  18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  19. Morten O. Ravn & Karel Mertens, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," 2008 Meeting Papers 575, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  20. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  23. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  24. Markku Lanne, Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/23, European University Institute.
  25. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 69, Society for Computational Economics.
  26. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  27. Andreas Beyer & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2006. "Identification Problems in SDGE Models with an illustration to a small Macro model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 81, Society for Computational Economics.
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