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Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

  • Michael B Devereux

    ()

    (University of British Columbia, CEPR and NBER)

  • Ozge Senay

    ()

    (University of St Andrews)

  • Alan Sutherland

    ()

    (University of St Andrews and CEPR)

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201309.

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Date of creation: 30 Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1309
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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 07/279, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2013. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Not as Bad as You Think," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(6), pages 1108 - 1159.
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  4. Philip R. Lane and Jay C. Shambaugh, 2008. "The Long or Short of it: Determinants of Foreign Currency Exposure in External Balance Sheets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp253, IIIS.
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  7. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations; Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 1997. "Trade in Nominal Assets and Net International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 1569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2008. "Country portfolios in open economy macro models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
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  13. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 144-89, January.
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  28. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7084aa4m is not listed on IDEAS
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  30. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2009. "Changes in the international comovement of stock returns and asymmetric macroeconomic shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-305, April.
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