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Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?

  • J. James Reade
  • Ulrich Volz

This paper considers the costs and benefits of Sweden joining the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).� We pay particular attention to the costs of abandoning the krona in terms of a loss of monetary policy independence.� For this purpose, we apply a cointegrated VAR framework to examine the degree of monetary independence that the Sveriges Riksbank enjoys.� Our results suggest that Sweden has in fact relatively little to lose from joining EMU, at least in terms of monetary independence.� We complement our analysis by looking into other criteria affecting the cost-benefit calculus of monetary integration, which, by and large, support our positive assessment of Swedish EMU membership.

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File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper442.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 442.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:442
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Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
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  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
  2. Anders Møller Christensen & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2009. "Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era: A Time Series Analysis of Rules vs. Discretion," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 69-89, 02.
  3. W.H. Buiter, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? (With an Application to UK Membership in EMU)," CEP Discussion Papers dp0462, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  6. Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2010. "In or out? The welfare costs of EMU membership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 585-594, March.
  7. Hali Edison & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 351-368, October.
  8. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
  10. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-88, September.
  11. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
  12. Emerson, Michael & Gros, Daniel & Italianer, Alexander & ,, 1992. "One Market, One Money: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773245, March.
  13. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
  14. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 239-250, January.
  15. Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000. " Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February.
  16. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  17. Lars Jonung & Jonas Vlachos, 2007. "The euro - what's in it for me? An economic analysis of the Swedish euro referendum of 2003," European Economy - Economic Papers 296, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  18. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Willem H. Buiter, 2008. "Why the United Kingdom Should Join the Eurozone," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 269-282, December.
  20. David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
  21. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
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