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Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?

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  • J James Reade
  • Ulrich Volz

Abstract

This paper considers the costs and benefits of Sweden joining the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We pay particular attention to the costs of abandoning the krona in terms of a loss of monetary policy independence. For this purpose, we apply a cointegrated VAR framework to examine the degree of monetary independence that the Sveriges Riksbank enjoys. Our results suggest that Sweden has in fact relatively little to lose from joining EMU, at least in terms of monetary independence. We complement our analysis by looking into other criteria affecting the cost-benefit calculus of monetary integration, which, by and large, support our positive assessment of Swedish EMU membership.

Suggested Citation

  • J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem H. Buiter, 2008. "Why the United Kingdom Should Join the Eurozone," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 269-282, December.
    2. W.H. Buiter, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? (With an Application to UK Membership in EMU)," CEP Discussion Papers dp0462, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
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    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Arreola-Hernandez, Jose & Bekiros, Stelios & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2018. "Risk transmitters and receivers in global currency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-9.
    2. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2017. "EU unification and linkages among the European currencies: new evidence from the EU and the EEA," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-36.
    3. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2019. "Scandinavia: Towards the European Monetary Union?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 278-291.
    4. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "When You Got Nothing, You Got Nothing to Lose – Regional Monetary Integration and Policy Independence," Chapters, in: Ulrich Volz (ed.), Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Slawomir Czech, 2015. "The Political Economy Of Staying Outside The Eurozone: Poland And Sweden Compared," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 23-43, September.
    6. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2014. "Monetary policy and nominal convergence in CEE countries with inflation targeting," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 38.
    7. Aleksandra Fedajev & Danijela Pantović & Isidora Milošević & Tamara Vesić & Aleksandra Jovanović & Magdalena Radulescu & Maria Cristina Stefan, 2023. "Evaluating the Outcomes of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the EU in Times of Crisis: A PLS-SEM Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, May.
    8. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU," Working Papers 2013-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2019. "Actual monetary policy independence in a small open economy: the Polish perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 499-522, February.
    10. D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2010. "Estimating Central Bank preferences in a small open economy: Sweden 1995-2009," MPRA Paper 26575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. BELAŞCU Lucian, 2016. "The Case of “EMU-Outsiders”: Economic and Political Considerations," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    12. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2016. "Euro Dominance Hypothesis and Monetary Policy Independence the Czech Perspective," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(6), pages 655-670.
    13. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Davor Kunovac, 2020. "Twentieth Anniversary of the Euro: Why are Some Countries Still Not Willing to Join? Economists’ View," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 242-262, June.
    14. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland," Working Papers 2013-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    15. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, . "Euro Dominance Hypothesis and Monetary Policy Independence - the Czech Perspective," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-16.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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