Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU
The aim of the article is to examine the degree of the long-run interest rate convergence in the context of Poland's joining the EMU. In this perspective, it is frequently argued that the expectations of Poland's participation in the EMU should manifest themselves in long-run interest rate convergence. This should be visible in the long-run fall of interest rate risk premium in Poland. In contrast, the paper raises the question of the actual speed of such convergence and questions the existence of this phenomenon in Poland. Confirmation of the hypothesis concerning slow convergence in the risk premium is essential to the analysis of costs of the Polish accession to the EMU. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using a Vector Error-Correction Mechanism model of an Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and several parametric hypotheses concerning the speed and asymmetry of adjustment.
|Date of creation:||2013|
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10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
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