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Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz Goczek

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Dagmara Mycielska

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

The aim of the article is to examine the degree of the long-run interest rate convergence in the context of Poland's joining the EMU. In this perspective, it is frequently argued that the expectations of Poland's participation in the EMU should manifest themselves in long-run interest rate convergence. This should be visible in the long-run fall of interest rate risk premium in Poland. In contrast, the paper raises the question of the actual speed of such convergence and questions the existence of this phenomenon in Poland. Confirmation of the hypothesis concerning slow convergence in the risk premium is essential to the analysis of costs of the Polish accession to the EMU. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using a Vector Error-Correction Mechanism model of an Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and several parametric hypotheses concerning the speed and asymmetry of adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU," Working Papers 2013-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2013-21
    as

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    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP106.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 239-250.
    3. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland," Working Papers 2013-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
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    Cited by:

    1. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland," Working Papers 2013-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    empirical analysis; Eurozone; interest rate convergence; monetary union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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