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Az optimális valutaövezet két elmélete - aszimmetrikus sokkok és nemzetközi pénzügyi integráció
[Principles of optimal currency areas: asymmetric shocks and international financial integration]

Author

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  • Soós, Károly Attila

Abstract

Robert Mundell híres 1961. évi cikkét tekintik az optimális valutaövezetek elmélete első megalapozásának. Valójában azonban az a cikk nem egy, hanem két elméletet alapozott meg. Az első az, amelyről a közgazdászok általában beszélnek. Ez az elmélet inkább a negatív ítélet felé hajlik. Ne vállaljunk közös valutát olyan országokkal, amelyek gazdaságának kibocsátási szerkezete eltér a miénktől, mert olyan negatív keresleti sokk sújthat bennünket, amely őket nem érinti, és bajba kerülünk, ha a közös valutával megfosztjuk magunkat a leértékelés lehetőségétől. És más hasonló érvek - ez az 1. elmélet. Mundell cikke azonban arról is szól néhány, az irodalomban sohasem idézett mondatban, hogy a nem rögzített árfolyam súlyos bajok forrása lesz akkor, ha a nemzetközi tőkemozgásokat liberalizálják. A később valósággá vált liberalizálás jelentős nemzetközi integrációs tendenciákat váltott ki a pénz- és tőkepiacokon, amelyek különös erővel érvényesültek az Európai Közösségek, később az Európai Unió gazdasági-politikai együttműködési-szövetségi rendszerén belül. Ezzel a Mundell által előrevetített probléma valósággá vált. Ehhez sok más közgazdász által írt újabb, fontos írások kapcsolódtak. Ezekből összerakható egy másik optimális valutaövezeti elmélet: ez a 2. elmélet. Ez pozitívabb: inkább a monetáris integráció mellett szól, és erősen ösztönözte is az euró megteremtését.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B27, B31, E42, F02, F33, F45, G15.

Suggested Citation

  • Soós, Károly Attila, 2021. "Az optimális valutaövezet két elmélete - aszimmetrikus sokkok és nemzetközi pénzügyi integráció [Principles of optimal currency areas: asymmetric shocks and international financial integration]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1250-1275.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2014
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2021.12.1250
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    JEL classification:

    • B27 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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