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The Geography of International Portfolio Flows, International CAPM, and the Role of Monetary Policy Frameworks

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto A. De Santis

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Using bilateral data on international equity and bond flows, we find that (i) the prediction of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model is partially met and that global equity markets might be more integrated than global bond markets, and (ii) asset allocators engage in trend-chasing activities, particularly in bond markets. Moreover, over the turbulent 1998-2001 period characterized by an equity bubble and the subsequent burst, we find evidence that investors preferred portfolio assets of countries where the central bank gave relative importance to money. As for EMU, once controlling for diversification benefits and the elimination of the exchange rate risk, we show that cross-border portfolio flows among euro-area countries have increased due to the catalyst effect of EMU. Countries’ shares in the world market portfolio, home bias, initial degree of misallocation across countries, past returns, diversification benefits, and EMU can explain 35-40 percent of the total variation in equity and bond asset flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto A. De Santis, 2010. "The Geography of International Portfolio Flows, International CAPM, and the Role of Monetary Policy Frameworks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 147-197, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2010:q:2:a:6
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Vida Bobic & Min Wu, 2019. "Net Capital Flows and Portfolio Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 7883, CESifo.
    2. De Santis, Robert A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2009. "International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1010-1027, November.
    3. Holinski, N. & Kool, C.J.M. & Muysken, J., 2008. "Taking home bias seriously: absolute and relative measures explaining consumption risk-sharing," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Pieterse-Bloem, M., 2011. "The effect of Emu on bond market integration and investor portfolio allocations," Other publications TiSEM 3c6ce80d-9260-424a-b889-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. de Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," SciencePo Working papers hal-01022660, HAL.
    7. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
    8. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    9. Holinski, Nils & Kool, Clemens J.M. & Muysken, Joan, 2012. "The impact of international portfolio composition on consumption risk sharing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1715-1728.
    10. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration [‘Capital flows in a globalised world: The role of policies and institutions’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(57), pages 56-106.
    11. Ginanjar Dewandaru & Rumi Masih & Mansur Masih, 2018. "Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 859-880, March.
    12. Geoff Kenny, 2010. "Macroeconomic forecasting: can forecast combination help?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11, pages 9-12.
    13. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    14. Alberto Felettigh & Paola Monti, 2008. "How to interpret the CPIS data on the distribution of foreign portfolio assets in the presence of sizeable cross-border positions in mutual funds. Evidence for Italy and the main euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 16, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    16. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Ozer-Balli, Hatice, 2010. "From home bias to Euro bias: Disentangling the effects of monetary union on the European financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 347-366, September.
    17. Gianni Amisano & Andreas Beyer & Michele Lenza, 2010. "Enhancing monetary analysis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11, pages 2-6.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Martin Scheicher, 2010. "“Return-free risk”? Market pricing in credit risk markets," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11, pages 7-8.
    20. Ulf Söderström, 2010. "Reevaluating Swedish Membership in the European Monetary Union: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 379-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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