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A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy

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  • Kristoffer Nimark

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper sets up and estimates a structural model of Australia as a small open economy using Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recent studies, the paper shows that a small micro-founded model can capture the open economy dimensions quite well. Specifically, the model attributes a substantial fraction of the volatility of domestic output and inflation to foreign disturbances and matches the evidence from reduced-form studies. In addition, the model relies much less than other estimated models on a persistent shock to the risk premium to explain changes in the nominal exchange rate. The paper also investigates the effects of various exogenous shocks on the Australian economy.

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File URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2007/pdf/rdp2007-01.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2007-01.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2007-01
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Keywords: small open economy; Australia; Bayesian methods;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Álvarez, Luis J. & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Hoeberichts, Marco & Kwapil, Claudia & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lünnemann, Patrick & Martins, Fernando & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Vermeulen, Philip & Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Timothy Kim & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2006. "Uncovering the Hit-list for Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
  6. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
  7. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2004. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 628, Econometric Society.
  8. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
  9. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  10. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  11. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2009. "The Simple Geometry of Transmission and Stabilization in Closed and Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 65-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  13. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008. "Price stability with imperfect financial integration," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  16. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  17. Leon Berkelmans, 2005. "Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  18. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  19. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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Cited by:

  1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Krzysztof Makarski & Grzegorz Wesolowski, 2013. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Working Papers 70, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  2. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Andrew Hodge & Tim Robinson & Robyn Stuart, 2008. "A Small BVAR-DSGE Model for Forecasting the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2016. "Assessing labor market frictions in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 231-251.
  5. Lie, Denny & Yadav, Anirudh S., 2015. "Time-Varying Trend Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Australia," Working Papers 2015-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  6. Philip Liu, 2008. "The Role of International Shocks in Australia’s Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Daniel Rees & Penelope Smith & Jamie Hall, 2015. "A Multi-sector Model of the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Mala Raghavan, 2014. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 421-446, December.
  9. Jarkko P. Jääskelä & Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2011. "A Medium-Scale New Keynesian Open Economy Model of Australia," Working Papers 588, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  10. Kristoffer Nimark & Jarkko Jääskelä, 2008. "A medium-scale open economy model of Australia," Economics Working Papers 1210, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  11. Harding, Don & Negara, Siwage, 2008. "Estimating baseline real business cycle models of the Australian economy," MPRA Paper 33556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Philip Liu, 2007. "Stabilizing The Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck Or Good Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  13. Jeremy Lawson & Daniel Rees, 2008. "A Sectoral Model of the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  14. Yan Sun, 2011. "From West to East; Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 11/120, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.
  16. Mariano Kulish & Daniel Rees, 2008. "Monetary Transmission and the Yield Curve in a Small Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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