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The business cycle implications of the euro adoption in Poland

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  • Michał Gradzewicz
  • Krzysztof Makarski

Abstract

This article analyses the macroeconomic impact of the loss of autonomous monetary policy after the euro adoption in Poland. Using a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages, we find that the euro adoption will have a noticeable impact on the magnitude of economic fluctuations. In particular, the volatility of output, interest rate, consumption and employment is expected to increase while the volatility of inflation should decrease. Also, in order to quantify the effect of the euro adoption, we compute the welfare effect of this monetary policy change. Our findings suggest that the welfare cost is not large.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski, 2013. "The business cycle implications of the euro adoption in Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2443-2455, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:17:p:2443-2455
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.667550
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    Cited by:

    1. Lama, Ruy & Rabanal, Pau, 2014. "Deciding to enter a monetary union: The role of trade and financial linkages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 138-165.
    2. Grzegorz Wesoƚowski, 2018. "Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6174-6192, December.
    3. Skibińska, Małgorzata, 2016. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 148-161.
    4. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    5. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2014. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-79.
    6. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2015. "The Cost of Euro Adoption in Poland," Working Paper 5779, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    7. Andrzej Cieślik & Jan Teresiński, 2020. "Comparing business cycles in the Eurozone and in Poland: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 317-366.
    8. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Lukasz Kozlowski, 2020. "Should we be afraid of powerful banks? The trade-off between bank power and liquidity buffer," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 437-466.
    9. Hong Zhuang & Miao Grace Wang & Imre Ersoy & Mesut Eren, 2023. "Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-306, June.
    10. Torój, Andrzej, 2015. "Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure in the EU: a Welfare Evaluation," MF Working Papers 22, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    11. Skibińska, Małgorzata, 2016. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 148-161.
    12. Torój, Andrzej, 2017. "Managing external macroeconomic imbalances in the EU: the welfare cost of scoreboard-based constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 293-311.

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