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SOEPL 2009 – An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis And Forecasting

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Abstract

The paper documents elements of work on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) SOEPL model that has been carried out in recent years at the National Bank of Poland. In 2009 a new version of the model was developed (called SOEPL−2009) which in 2010 is to support an econometric model and experts’ forecasts in mid-term forecasting of inflation and economic activity. The paper consists of three basic parts. The first part is introductory and briefly outlines the development of macroeconometric methods which brought about the creation of new-keynesian models specified within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. The remaining two parts of the paper report specification, estimation results and some properties of the SOEPL−2009 DSGE model.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz Grabek & Bohdan Klos & Grzegorz Koloch, 2011. "SOEPL 2009 – An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis And Forecasting," NBP Working Papers 83, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:83
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    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/83_en.pdf
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    1. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    2. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank.
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    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    2. Takeshi Yagihashi, 2020. "DSGE Models Used by Policymakers: A Survey," Discussion papers ron333, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    3. Michal Andrle & Giang Ho & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos, 2014. "A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2014/186, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski, 2013. "The business cycle implications of the euro adoption in Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2443-2455, June.
    5. Michal Andrle & Giang Ho & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos, 2013. "The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure," IMF Working Papers 2013/220, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "Amplification of shocks at the zero lower bound in a small open and large closed economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1029-1033, September.
    7. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2019. "Regional patterns in technological progress of Poland: the role of EU structural funds," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 1195-1220, December.
    8. Copaciu, Mihai & Nalban, Valeriu & Bulete, Cristian, 2015. "R.E.M. 2.0, An estimated DSGE model for Romania," Dynare Working Papers 48, CEPREMAP.
    9. Kawther Alimi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2022. "Wage Rigidity Impacts on Unemployment and Inflation Persistence in Tunisia: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 474-500, March.
    10. Valeriu Nalban, 2015. "A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    11. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2014. "The impact of the recent global crisis on the prioritization of central banks final objectives. A structural approach in the context of Central and Eastern European states," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(2), pages 51-76, September.

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