A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities
Applied partial and general equilibrium models used to examine trade policy are almost universally sensitive to trade elasticities. Indeed, the Armington elasticity, the degree of substitution between domestic and imported goods, is a key behavioral parameter that drives the quantitative, and sometimes the qualitative, results that policymakers use. While standard transparent approaches to econometric estimation of these elasticities have been offered for the last 30 years, the estimates are viewed as too small by many trade economists. A few robust findings emerge from the econometric literature: (1) more disaggregate analyses find higher elasticities, (2) long-run estimates are higher than short-run estimates, and (3) time series analyses generally find lower elasticities relative to cross-sectional studies. We offer simulation results to illustrate the sensitivity of general equilibrium models to Armington elasticites. We conclude with remarks on the current challenges that remain in determining these important parameters.
|Date of creation:||27 Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - PDF; pages: 19; figures: included|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Cox & Richard Harris, 1983.
"Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada,"
523, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
- Clinton Shiells & Robert Stern & Alan Deardorff, 1989.
"Estimates of the elasticities of substitution between imports and home goods for the United States: Reply,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 371-374, June.
- Shiells, C.R. & Stern, R.M. & Deardorff, A.V., 1988. "Estimates Of The Elasticities Of Substitution Between Imports And Home Goods For The United States: Reply," Working Papers 235, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2001. "Chile's regional arrangements and the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas : the importance of market access," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2634, The World Bank.
- Robert C. Feenstra & James A. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998.
"Undertstanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods,"
NBER Working Papers
6804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
- Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-48, March.
- Helene Erkel-Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2000.
"Import Price-Elastcities: Reconsidering the Evidence,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0909, Econometric Society.
- Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2002. "Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 282-306, May.
- Erkel-Rousse, H. & Mirza, D., 2000. "Import Price-Elasticities : Reconsidering the Evidence," Papiers d'Economie MathÃ©matique et Applications 2000.52, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Premachandra Athukorala & James Riedel, 1991. "The small country assumption: A reassessment with evidence from Korea," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 138-151, March.
- Brown, D.K., 1992. "The Impact of a North American Free Trade Area: Applied General Equilibrium Models," Working Papers 311, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
- Liu, Jing & Channing Arndt & Thomas Hertel, 2003.
"Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model,"
GTAP Working Papers
1200, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Liu, Jing & Arndt, Channing, 2004. "Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 626-649.
- Dawkins, Christina & Srinivasan, T.N. & Whalley, John, 2001. "Calibration," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 58, pages 3653-3703 Elsevier.
- Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson, 1999. "Explaining Armington: What Determines Substitutability Between Home and Foreign Goods?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Reinert, Kenneth A. & Roland-Holst, David W., 1992. "Armington elasticities for United States manufacturing sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 631-639, October.
- Harrison, Glenn W. & Jones, Richard & Kimbell, Larry J. & Wigle, Randal, 1993. "How robust is applied general equilibrium analysis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-115, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpco:0303002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.