Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities
CGEMs are one of the most potentially powerful tools for simulating policies. However, a major restriction they face is them needing a huge number of parameters that are not always available, and even at times impossible to obtain. When CGEMs are applied to trade, Armington elasticities of substitution are one of those key sets. The common practice among CGEMs builders has been to impose these values, either at will or by using those stemming from other existing research. There is general consensus, however, that econometrically estimated parameters for each case study would substantially improve the robustness of results. Unfortunately, most of the so obtained elasticities are considered underestimates of both the real and theoretically expected parameters. This gave rise to a growing concern on the eventual role played by methodological and empirical issues in this matter. There are some findings that have generated a quite general consensus among researchers, related to the type of datasets used; the disaggregation levels at which goods are defined and the origins of imported varieties are considered; the frequency of data; among others.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:||2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Warr, 2008. "The transmission of import prices to domestic prices: an application to Indonesia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 499-503.
- Erkel-Rousse, H. & Mirza, D., 2000.
"Import Price-Elasticities : Reconsidering the Evidence,"
Papiers d'Economie MathÃ©matique et Applications
2000.52, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2002. "Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 282-306, May.
- Helene Erkel-Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2000. "Import Price-Elastcities: Reconsidering the Evidence," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0909, Econometric Society.
- Chris M. Alaouze & John S. Marsden & John Zeitsch, 1977. "Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution Between Imported and Domestically Produced Commodities at the Four Digit ASIC Level," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-11, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Mika Saito, 2004.
"Armington elasticities in intermediate inputs trade: a problem in using multilateral trade data,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1097-1117, November.
- Mika Saito, 2004. "Armington Elasticities in Intermediate Inputs Trade: A Problem in Using Multilateral Trade Data," IMF Working Papers 04/22, International Monetary Fund.
- McKitrick, Ross R., 1998. "The econometric critique of computable general equilibrium modeling: the role of functional forms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 543-573, October.
- Kapuscinski, Cezary A. & Warr, Peter G., 1999.
"Estimation of Armington elasticities: an application to the Philippines,"
Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 257-278, April.
- Cezary A Kapuscinski & Peter G Warr, 1996. "Estimation of Armington Elasticities: An Application to the Philippines," Departmental Working Papers 1996-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Cezary A. Kapuscinski & Prof Peter G. Warr, 1996. "Estimation of Armington Elasticities: An Application to the Philippines," Trade and Development 96/8, Australian National University, Department of Economics.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004.
"How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
NBER Working Papers
10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Tourinho, Octávio Augusto Fontes & Kume, Honorio & Pedroso, Ana Cristina, 2007. "Elasticidades de Armington para o Brasil: 1986-2002," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 61(2), August.
- Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
- Gustavo Hernández, 1998. "Elasticidades de sustitución de las importaciones para la Economía Colombiana," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, November.
- Christine A. McDaniel & Edward J. Balistreri, 2003.
"A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities,"
- McDaniel, Christine A. & Balistreri, Edward J., 2002. "A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities," Working Papers 15856, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, July.
- Chris M. Alaouze, 1977. "Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestically produced goods classified at the input-output level of aggregation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-13, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-48, March.
- Welsch, Heinz, 2006. "Armington elasticities and induced intra-industry specialization: The case of France, 1970-1997," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 556-567, May.
- Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson, 1999. "Explaining Armington: What Determines Substitutability Between Home and Foreign Goods?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Reinert, Kenneth A. & Roland-Holst, David W., 1992. "Armington elasticities for United States manufacturing sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 631-639, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.