Import Price and Activity Elasticities for the MONASH Model: Johansen FIML Estimation of Cointegration Vectors
This study investigates the relationship between manufactured import flows to Australia and relative prices and domestic economic activity over the period 1981Q3 to 1992Q2. This is done through the estimation of import demand functions for total manufactured imports and 29 import product categories defined at the 2-digit level of the AICC by employing the Johansen FIML procedure. The price and activity elasticities will form part of the elasticity files of the MONASH Model, currently being developed at the Centre of Policy Studies. The price elasticities range from 0.24 to 1.75, with a weighted-average of 0.60. We also find evidence of upward bias in price elasticity estimates when an aggregate import function is employed in a context where variation in prices of individual products are negatively correlated with their price elasticities, and when a significant portion of imports are subject to quantitative restrictions (QRs). The unit activity elasticity hypothesis was accepted for one third of our sample. The majority of activity elasticities are greater than one, and usually closer to two.
|Date of creation:||Jul 1993|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 14428, Melbourne, Victoria, 8001|
Phone: 03 9919 1877
Web page: http://www.copsmodels.com/about.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gregory, R G & Martin, L D, 1976. "An Analysis of Relationships between Import Flows to Australia and Recent Exchange Rate and Tariff Changes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 52(137), pages 1-25, March.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Bushe, Dennis M & Kravis, Irving B & Lipsey, Robert E, 1986. "Prices, Activity, and Machinery Exports: An Analysis Based on New Price Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 248-55, May.
- Meer, Anthony J & Heijdra, Ben J, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the Australian Current Account Balance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(55), pages 199-225, December.
- Hall, S G, 1991. "The Effect of Varying Length VAR Models on the Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Vectors," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 317-23, November.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Gordon, J M, 1986. "The J-Curve Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 82-88, Supplemen.
- Stone, Joe A, 1979. "Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports: Industry Estimates for the U.S., the E.E.C. and Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 306-12, May.
- Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "Estimates of a traditional aggregate import demand model for five countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 435-439, April.
- Freebairn, J W, 1986. "The Exchange Rate and the Trade Account: Comment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 108-10, Supplemen.
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "Information Criteria for Discriminating among Alternative Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1273-91, November.
- Jayant Menon, 1992. "Exchange rates and prices of Australian manufactured exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(4), pages 695-710, December.
- Murray C. Kemp, 1962. "Errors Of Measurement And Bias In Estimates Of Import Demand Parameters1," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 38(83), pages 369-372, 09.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Robert E. Lipsey & Linda Molinari & Irving B. Kravis, 1991.
"Measures of Prices and Price Competitiveness in International Trade in Manufactured Goods,"
in: International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, pages 144-199
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lipsey & Linda Molinari & Irving B. Kravis, 1990. "Measures of Prices and Price Competitiveness in International Trade in Manufactured Goods," NBER Working Papers 3442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Khan, Mohsm S. & Ross, Knud Z., 1977. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 149-160, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.