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Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l’engorgement

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  • Magali Jaoul

Abstract

[fre] In many countries , the higher education and economic systems have undergone periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation or recession . A relationship between these two indicators has therefore been assumed . Diebolt (2001 ) believes that the educational movements are linked to evolutions on the labour market . According to his “ glutting ” theory , students ’ career choices depend on expected earnings levels and the availability of places in the professional sector concerned . In this study we propose an econometric test of this theory in the case of Germany (1820-1941 ), using co-integration and causality . The relationships that emerge seem to confirm this theory : we find substitutability between university courses and the various professions , on the one hand , and , on the other , complementarity between the numbers of students in the universities and of posts in the corresponding professions . [eng] In many countries , the higher education and economic systems have undergone periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation or recession . A relationship between these two indicators has therefore been assumed . Diebolt (2001 ) believes that the educational movements are linked to evolutions on the labour market . According to his “ glutting ” theory , students ’ career choices depend on expected earnings levels and the availability of places in the professional sector concerned . In this study we propose an econometric test of this theory in the case of Germany (1820-1941 ), using co-integration and causality . The relationships that emerge seem to confirm this theory : we find substitutability between university courses and the various professions , on the one hand , and , on the other , complementarity between the numbers of students in the universities and of posts in the corresponding professions .

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  • Magali Jaoul, 2004. "Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l’engorgement," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 166(5), pages 39-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_166_5_7380
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2004.7380
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7380
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    Cited by:

    1. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2007. "Stratégie des étudiants et choix d’orientation: Une analyse expérimentale de l’engorgement," Working Papers 07-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Claude Diebolt & Bachir El Murr, 2004. "A cobweb model of higher education and labour market dynamics," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(3-4), pages 409-430.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Olivier Darné, 2005. "Cliometrics of Academic Careers and the Impact of Infrequent Large Shocks in Germany before 1945," Post-Print hal-00279246, HAL.
    4. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires," Working Papers of BETA 2014-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2016. "Cliométrie de l’enseignement supérieur : une analyse expérimentale de la théorie de l’engorgement," Working Papers 02-16, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    6. Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires en France au XXème siècle," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1309-1333, Août.
    7. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Social prestige of occupations and substitutability of university courses in France during the 20th century [Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires en France," Post-Print hal-01744651, HAL.

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