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Cliométrie de l’engorgement en France. Evaluation théorique et empirique

  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare

    ()

    (LAMETA, Université Montpellier I.)

Dans de nombreux pays, le système d’enseignement supérieur, comme le système économique, a connu des phases d’expansion suivies de périodes de stagnation ou de baisse. Aussi, la possibilité d’une liaison entre les deux systèmes a souvent été avancée. Pour Diebolt (2001), ces mouvements sont liés aux mouvements du marché du travail. Dans sa théorie de l’engorgement, il considère que le comportement des étudiants dans leurs choix de carrière dépend des revenus espérés et des disponibilités au coeur du secteur professionnel. L’objet de cet article, est de proposer un test économétrique de cette théorie, pour le cas de la France (1982-2002), à l’aide de la cointégration et de la causalité. Les relations mises en évidence dans notre analyse semblent aller dans le sens d’une confirmation de cette théorie. En effet, nous observons une substituabilité entre filières universitaires et entre les diverses professions d’une part et une complémentarité entre effectifs universitaires et professions correspondantes, par ailleurs.

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Paper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number 06-07.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:06-07
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org

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  12. Christian Baudelot & Michel Glaude, 1989. "Les diplômes se dévaluent-ils en se multipliant ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 225(1), pages 3-16.
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