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Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l'engorgement

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  • Magali Jaoul

Abstract

In many countries, the higher education and economic systems have undergone periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation or recession. A relationship between these two indicators has therefore been assumed. Diebolt(2001) believes that the educational movements are linked to evolutions on the labour market. According to his ?glutting? theory, students?career choices depend on expected earnings levels and the availability of places in the professional sector concerned. Inthis study we propose an econometric test of this theory in the case of Germany (1820-1941), using co-integration and causality. The relationships that emerge seem to confirm this theory: we find substitutability between university courses and the various professions, on the one hand, and, on the other, complementarity between the numbers of students in the universities and of posts in the corresponding professions.

Suggested Citation

  • Magali Jaoul, 2004. "Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l'engorgement," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 166(5), pages 39-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_166_0039
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    Cited by:

    1. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2007. "Stratégie des étudiants et choix d’orientation: Une analyse expérimentale de l’engorgement," Working Papers 07-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires," Working Papers of BETA 2014-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2016. "Cliométrie de l’enseignement supérieur : une analyse expérimentale de la théorie de l’engorgement," Working Papers 02-16, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Claude Diebolt & Bachir El Murr, 2004. "A cobweb model of higher education and labour market dynamics," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(3-4), pages 409-430.
    5. Claude Diebolt & Olivier Darné, 2005. "Cliometrics of Academic Careers and the Impact of Infrequent Large Shocks in Germany before 1945," Post-Print hal-00279246, HAL.
    6. Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires en France au XXème siècle," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1309-1333, Août.
    7. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Social prestige of occupations and substitutability of university courses in France during the 20th century [Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires en France au XXème siècle]," Post-Print hal-01744651, HAL.

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