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Exchange Rate Pass-Through for Australian Manufactured Imports: Estimates from the Johansen Maximum-Likelihood Procedure

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  • Jayant Menon

Abstract

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through for Australian manufactured imports by applying an econometric procedure which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies to a carefully assembled data set. For the first time, we provide estimates of pass-through based on the Johansen (1988) ML procedure. Our finding of incomplete pass-through has important implications for policy and the macroeconomy. Incomplete pass-through brings into question the validity of the "small" country assumption and the exogeneity of the terms of trade with respect to exchange rate changes. We may also have to reconsider the extent of the apparent inflationary (deflationary) consequences of exchange rate depreciations (appreciations), and the effects of exchange rate variability on international trade flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayant Menon, 1993. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through for Australian Manufactured Imports: Estimates from the Johansen Maximum-Likelihood Procedure," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-60, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-60
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    2. Rivera, Luis & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2010. "Formación de capital humano y el vínculo entre comercio y pobreza: los casos de Costa Rica y Nicaragua," Documentos de Proyectos 3814, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. -, 2010. "Comercio, pobreza y políticas complementarias en América Latina," Documentos de Proyectos 3807, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Tellería, Roberto & Fernández, Soraya & Ludeña, Carlos, 2011. "Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences," Documentos de Proyectos 3922, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Rivera, Luis & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2009. "Human Capital Formation and the Linkage between Trade and Poverty: The Cases of Costa Rica and Nicaragua," Conference papers 331887, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. González, Cynthia & Arce, Lucas & Masi, Fernando & Servín, Belén & Setrini, Gustavo, 2010. "Comercio y pobreza en Paraguay: el caso de una cadena de valor agroindustrial," Documentos de Proyectos 3817, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. -, 2011. "Trade, poverty and complementary policies in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 3918, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Terra, María Inés & Patrón, Rossana, 2010. "Skill formation in Uruguay: what are the required labour qualifications for development?," Documentos de Proyectos 3768, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Durán Lima, José Elías & LaFleur, Marcelo & Pellandra, Andrea, 2010. "Comercio, pobreza y políticas complementarias," Documentos de Proyectos 3808, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Lopez, Ramon E., 2010. "Poverty and Income Distribution in Latin America: On the Complementarities Between Trade Policy and Social Public Spending," Working Papers 94204, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Durán Lima, José Elías & Finot, Alfonso & LaFleur, Marcelo, 2011. "Analysis of the effects of trade opening on household welfare: an application to Chile, 1999-2006," Documentos de Proyectos 3929, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. López, Ramón, 2010. "Pobreza y distribución del ingreso en América Latina: complementariedades entre política comercial y gasto público social," Documentos de Proyectos 3828, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Bouet, Antoine & Estrades, Carmen & Laborde, David, 2011. "Is MERCOSUR external agenda pro-poor? An assessment of the EU-MERCOSUR free trade agreement on Uruguayan poverty applying MIRAGE," Conference papers 332042, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. de Souza Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento, 2010. "El incremento mundial en la demanda de etanol y la pobreza en Brasil," Documentos de Proyectos 3820, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Valdés, Alberto & Foster, William, 2011. "Agricultural incentives, growth and poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Proyectos 3924, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. González, Cynthia & Arce, Lucas & Masi, Fernando & Servín, Belén & Setrini, Gustavo, 2011. "Trade and poverty in Paraguay: the case of an agribusiness value chain," Documentos de Proyectos 3928, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Terra, María Inés & Patrón, Rossana, 2010. "Formación de capacidades en Uruguay: ¿cuáles son las cualificaciones del trabajo requeridas para el desarrollo económico?," Documentos de Proyectos 3815, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Durán Lima, José Elías & Finot, Alfonso & LaFleur, Marcelo, 2011. "Effects of trade opening on household welfare: the Chilean case," Comercio Internacional 4342, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Valdés, Alberto & Foster, William, 2010. "Incentivos agrícolas, crecimiento y pobreza en América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de Proyectos 3813, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    20. Wong, Sara & Kulmer, Veronika, 2010. "Integración comercial con la UE e impactos sobre la pobreza en Ecuador," Documentos de Proyectos 3809, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    21. Durán Lima, José Elías & Finot, Alfonso & LaFleur, Marcelo, 2011. "Analysis of the effects of trade opening on household welfare: an application to Chile, 1999-2006," Documentos de Proyectos 3872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    22. Durán Lima, José Elías & Finot, Alfonso & LaFleur, Marcelo, 2010. "Análisis de la apertura comercial sobre el bienestar de los hogares: una aplicación para Chile 1999-2006," Documentos de Proyectos 3818, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    23. Tellería, Roberto & Fernández, Soraya & Ludeña, Carlos, 2010. "Políticas alternativas y estrategias para Bolivia tras el fin de las preferencias arancelarias ATPDEA: evaluación de un acuerdo comercial con la Unión Europea," Documentos de Proyectos 3811, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    24. Wong, Sara & Kulmer, Veronika, 2011. "Poverty impacts of trade integration with the European Union: lessons for Ecuador," Documentos de Proyectos 3920, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    25. de Souza Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento, 2011. "The rise in global demand for ethanol and poverty in Brazil," Documentos de Proyectos 3923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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