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Formación de capital humano y el vínculo entre comercio y pobreza: los casos de Costa Rica y Nicaragua

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  • Rivera, Luis
  • Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo

Abstract

Combinamos diversos instrumentos analíticos para evaluar el impacto de políticas comerciales y de capital humano sobre agregados macroeconómicos y la pobreza, y cómo ambas políticas se complementan en el caso de Costa Rica y Nicaragua. Usamos un enfoque top-down con un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC) dinámico recursivo y micro simulaciones para estimar los efectos de dos acuerdos comerciales (DR-CAFTA y AA-UECA) sobre la producción y la pobreza. Adicionalmente, utilizamos un modelo satélite de capital humano para evaluar el impacto de la formación de capital humano. Combinando el modelo satélite con el MEGC construimos un marco analítico para estimar los efectos directos de cada política sobre la pobreza así como su efecto complementario. Concluimos que la política de capital humano tiene un impacto significativo y permanente sobre el crecimiento económico y esto se asocia con reducciones en la pobreza. Por otro lado, los cambios estáticos en eficiencia asociados con la liberalización del comercio tienen impactos positivos pero pequeños sobre el crecimiento y la pobreza.

Suggested Citation

  • Rivera, Luis & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2010. "Formación de capital humano y el vínculo entre comercio y pobreza: los casos de Costa Rica y Nicaragua," Documentos de Proyectos 358, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col022:3825
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