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How Will Decreasing Subsistence Production Affect Future Dairy Markets in the Central European Countries?

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  • Banse, Martin
  • Grethe, Harald

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to depict subsistence production of milk in a partial equilibrium sector model and applies this approach to Poland, Bulgaria and Romania in the European Simulation Model (ESIM). The restriction on milk production implied by the EU milk quota in a situation with increasing market demand along with decreasing subsistence production and consumption, potentially drives up prices for nontradable dairy products in the Central European Countries (CECs), and results in significantly lower net exports and lower production than if these countries do not accede to the EU. Results presented should be taken as tentative and in no way final as the empirical foundation of many of the relevant parameters is weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald, 2005. "How Will Decreasing Subsistence Production Affect Future Dairy Markets in the Central European Countries?," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 231833, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae89:231833
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.231833
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    Cited by:

    1. Cassoni, Adriana & Flores, Manuel, 2008. "Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities," Conference papers 331813, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Ali-Kein, Hela Hadj & Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Tonini, Axel & Requillart, Vincent, 2005. "EU Dairy Sector: Impact of Luxemburg Reform, EU Enlargement and Trade Negotiations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24581, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Witzke, Heinz Peter & Tonini, Axel, 2008. "Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43654, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Ali-Kein, Hela Hadj & Requillart, Vincent, 2006. "Impact of WTO reforms on the world dairy sector," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21149, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Heinz Peter Witzke & Andrea Zintl & Axel Tonini, 2009. "The Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) Model: Dairy Reform and Western Balkan Countries Accession Scenarios," JRC Research Reports JRC50411, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).

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