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Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty

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  • Witzke, Heinz Peter
  • Tonini, Axel

Abstract

The study provides an agricultural multi commodity analysis able to focus and investigate the ongoing EU milk reform. The analysis is carried with the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model which is a comparative-static, partial equilibrium modelling tool covering the whole of agriculture of EU member states. The model provides a reference run which is a "baseline scenario" where the 2003 CAP Reform is projected into the future. This scenario is compared to a "quota expiry" scenario where milk quotas are abolished by 2015, a "soft landing" scenario where further quota expansions are envisaged and an "early quota expiry" by 2009. Sensitivity analysis is done for different set of quota rent assumptions and export refund abolition. Key results, under a "quota expiry scenario" are that milk production would increase by 2.8% in EU27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Witzke, Heinz Peter & Tonini, Axel, 2008. "Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43654, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:43654
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.43654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald, 2005. "How Will Decreasing Subsistence Production Affect Future Dairy Markets in the Central European Countries?," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 231833, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio A. Madau & Roberto Furesi & Pietro Pulina, 2017. "Technical efficiency and total factor productivity changes in European dairy farm sectors," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Rachel Rose & Dimitrios Paparas, 2023. "Price Transmission: The Case of the UK Dairy Market," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Katarzyna Hertel, 2009. "Implications of the Abolition of Milk Quota System for Polish Agriculture – Simulation Results Based on the AG MEMOD Model," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 3(3), September.

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