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Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty


  • Witzke, Heinz Peter
  • Tonini, Axel


The study provides an agricultural multi commodity analysis able to focus and investigate the ongoing EU milk reform. The analysis is carried with the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model which is a comparative-static, partial equilibrium modelling tool covering the whole of agriculture of EU member states. The model provides a reference run which is a "baseline scenario" where the 2003 CAP Reform is projected into the future. This scenario is compared to a "quota expiry" scenario where milk quotas are abolished by 2015, a "soft landing" scenario where further quota expansions are envisaged and an "early quota expiry" by 2009. Sensitivity analysis is done for different set of quota rent assumptions and export refund abolition. Key results, under a "quota expiry scenario" are that milk production would increase by 2.8% in EU27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Witzke, Heinz Peter & Tonini, Axel, 2008. "Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43654, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:43654

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Seale, James & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 184321, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald, 2005. "How Will Decreasing Subsistence Production Affect Future Dairy Markets in the Central European Countries?," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 231833, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Witzke, Heinz Peter & Britz, Wolfgang, 2005. "Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24666, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:agfoec:v:5:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40100-017-0085-x is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Katarzyna Hertel, 2009. "Implications of the Abolition of Milk Quota System for Polish Agriculture – Simulation Results Based on the AG MEMOD Model," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 3(3), September.

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    EU milk reform; CAPSIM; quota rent.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance;

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