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Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Witzke, Heinz Peter
  • Britz, Wolfgang

Abstract

In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts subject to the equations of the sector model.

Suggested Citation

  • Witzke, Heinz Peter & Britz, Wolfgang, 2005. "Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24666, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24666
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    2. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ronald C. & Jansson, Torbjorn, 2008. "A Bayesian Alternative To Generalized Cross Entropy Solutions For Underdetermined Econometric Models," Discussion Papers 56973, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Conforti, Piero & Londero, Pierluigi, 2001. "Aglink: The Oecd Partial Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 14808, National Institute of Agricultural Economics, Italy – INEA, Osservatorio Sulle Politiche Agricole dell'UE.
    5. Conforti, Piero & Londero, Pierluigi, 2001. "Aglink: The Oecd Partial Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 14808, National Institute of Agricultural Economics, Italy INEA, Osservatorio Sulle Politiche Agricole dell'UE.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Witzke, Heinz Peter & Tonini, Axel, 2008. "Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43654, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural outlook; forecasting; modelling; expert information; Agricultural and Food Policy; C15; C53; Q11; Q19; Q21;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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