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Modelling the Effects of Partial Decoupling on Crop and Fodder Area And Ruminant Supply in the EU: Current State and Outlook

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  • Balkhausen, Oliver
  • Banse, Martin
  • Grethe, Harald
  • Nolte, Stephan

Abstract

Various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize area as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model results are heterogeneous with respect to the direction of the decoupling effect on oilseed and pasture as well as voluntary set aside area. The model type (behavioural partial or general equilibrium model, or programming model) is not found to have a systematic effect on model results. It is rather the ad hoc assumptions about the effectiveness of direct payments on production which differ widely and drive model results to a large extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Balkhausen, Oliver & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Nolte, Stephan, 2005. "Modelling the Effects of Partial Decoupling on Crop and Fodder Area And Ruminant Supply in the EU: Current State and Outlook," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 231832, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae89:231832
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.231832
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balkhausen, Oliver & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Nolte, Stephan, 2005. "Modellierung der Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen in der EU auf die Flächenallokation und Wiederkäuerproduktion: Eine Analyse unterschiedlicher Modellergebnisse," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 54(08), pages 1-15.
    2. Borresch, Rene & Kavallari, Aikaterini & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2005. "CAP Reform and the Mediterranean EU-Member States," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24607, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Mack, G. & Schaak, D. & Mann, S., 2006. "Die Schweiz in der EU? Modellberechnungen zu den Konsequenzen einer Mitgliedschaft für den Schweizerischen Agrarsektor," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    4. Cassoni, Adriana & Flores, Manuel, 2008. "Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities," Conference papers 331813, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Alexandre Gohin, 2006. "Assessing CAP Reform: Sensitivity of Modelling Decoupled Policies," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 415-440, September.
    6. Frédéric Courleux & Hervé Guyomard & Fabrice Levert & Laurent Piet, 2008. "How the EU Single Farm Payment should be modelled: lump-sum transfers, area payments or… what else?," Working Papers SMART 08-01, INRAE UMR SMART.
    7. Breisinger, Clemens, 2006. "Roads - A way out of poverty? A two region, general equilibrium model for Vietnam," Conference papers 331478, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Banse, M. & Grethe, H., 2006. "Die Verwendung der logistischen Funktionsform zur Modellierung von internationaler Preistransmission in Nettohandelsmodellen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    9. Dominguez, Ignacio Perez & Wieck, Christine, 2006. "Welfare distribution between EU Member States through different national decoupling options. Implications for Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(11), pages 1-29.
    10. Gohin, Alexandre, 2006. "Assessing the 2003 CAP Reform: Sensitivity to the Decoupling of Agenda 2000 Direct Payments," Working Papers 18868, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
    11. Alexandre Gohin, 2005. "Assessing the impacts of the 2003 CAP mid term review : how sensitive are they to the assumed production responsiveness to Agenda 2000 direct payments ?," Post-Print hal-01937085, HAL.
    12. Frédéric Courleux & Herve Guyomard & Fabrice Levert & Laurent Piet & . Inra & . Société Française d'Economie Rurale, 2007. "How the EU single farm payment should be modelled: lump-sum transfers, area payments or… something else ?," Post-Print hal-02282245, HAL.
    13. Balkhausen, O. & Banse, M. & Grethe, H., 2006. "Modellierung der Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen in der EU - Modellansätze, Ergebnisse und Ausblick," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    14. A. Bonfiglio & B. Camaioni & S. Coderoni & R. Esposti & F. Pagliacci & F. Sotte, 2016. "Where does EU money eventually go? The distribution of CAP expenditure across the European space," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 693-727, November.
    15. Schmid, Erwin & Sinabell, Franz, 2006. "Alternative Implementations of the Single Farm Payment - Distributional Consequences for Austria," Discussion Papers DP-17-2006, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development.

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