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Modellierung der Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen in der EU auf die Flächenallokation und Wiederkäuerproduktion: Eine Analyse unterschiedlicher Modellergebnisse

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  • Balkhausen, Oliver
  • Banse, Martin
  • Grethe, Harald
  • Nolte, Stephan

Abstract

Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model results are mixed with respect to the direction of the decoupling effect on oilseed and pasture as well as voluntary set aside area. The model type is not found to have a systematic effect on model results. It is rather the assumptions about the effects of direct payments on production which differ widely and drive model results to a large extent. A model analysis which is based on the partial agricultural sector model ESIM-2005 highlights the importance of the level of pasture acreage allocation elasticities in the determination of decoupling effects on the distribution of Grandes Cultures and fodder & pasture area.

Suggested Citation

  • Balkhausen, Oliver & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Nolte, Stephan, 2005. "Modellierung der Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen in der EU auf die Flächenallokation und Wiederkäuerproduktion: Eine Analyse unterschiedlicher Modellergebnisse," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 54(08), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97401
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.97401
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    1. Søren E. Frandsen & Birgitte Gersfelt & Hans G. Jensen, 2003. "The Impacts of Redesigning European Agricultural Support," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 106-131, July.
    2. Chantreuil, Frédéric & Levert, Fabrice & Hanrahan, Kevin, 2005. "The Luxembourg Agreement Reform of the CAP: an Analysis Using the AG-MEMOD Composite Model," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232590, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Binfield, Julian C.R. & Donnellan, Trevor & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & Hart, Chad E. & Westhoff, Patrick C., 2004. "CAP Reform and the WTO: Potential Impacts on EU Agriculture," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20020, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Unknown, 2003. "Decoupled Payments: Household Income Transfers In Contemporary U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural Economic Reports 34057, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Balkhausen, Oliver & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Nolte, Stephan, 2005. "Modelling the Effects of Partial Decoupling on Crop and Fodder Area And Ruminant Supply in the EU: Current State and Outlook," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 231832, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2011. "Regional structural change in European agriculture: Effects of decoupling and EU accession," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 60, number 60.

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