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Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models

Author

Listed:
  • Kuhlman, Tom
  • van Tongeren, Frank W.
  • Helming, John F.M.
  • Tabeau, Andrzej A.
  • Gaaff, Aris
  • Groeneveld, Rolf A.
  • Koole, Boudewijn
  • Verhoog, A. David
  • Dekkers, Jasper

Abstract

Analyses of the impact of European policies on agricultural change are most often based on agricultural sector models. Such models have their limitations: they cannot specify the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and their spatial dimension is usually limited. Land use simulation models, on the other hand, usually depend on other models for assessing the demand for land. The consistency of those models with the assumptions and databases of the land use model is often not examined. This article reports on a research project where the links between a macroeconomic model, an agricultural sector model and a land use model were explicitly explored in order to arrive at a consistent model chain. This integrated framework was put to the test by applying it to two contrasting scenarios, which compare impact on agricultural incomes, land use and land management.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuhlman, Tom & van Tongeren, Frank W. & Helming, John F.M. & Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Gaaff, Aris & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & Koole, Boudewijn & Verhoog, A. David & Dekkers, Jasper, 2006. "Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 55(5/6).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97190
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Flichman, Guillermo & Donatelli, Marcello & Louhichi, M.K. & Romstad, Eirik & Heckelei, Thomas & Auclair, D. & Garvey, E. & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Janssen, Sander J.C. & Elbersen, Berien S., 2006. "Quantitative models of SEAMLESS-IF and procedures for up-and downscaling," Reports 9297, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society.
    2. Deppermann, Andre & Grethe, Harald & Offermann, Frank, 2010. "Effekte Einer Eu-Agrarmarktliberalisierung Auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen Anhand Eines Europäischen Agrarsektormodells Und Eines Angebotsmodells Für Den Deutschen Agrarsektor," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93958, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Helming, John F.M. & Schrijver, R.A.M., 2008. "Effects of agri-environmental measures and changes in EU single farm payments on Dutch agriculture," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6602, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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