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Turkish Delight – Does Turkey’s accession to the EU bring economic benefits?

Author

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  • Arjan M. Lejour
  • Ruud A. de Mooij

Abstract

We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive. European exports increase by around 20 percent. Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4 percent as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, consumption per capita in Turkey could raise by an additional 9 percent. These benefits would spill over to the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij, 2004. "Turkish Delight – Does Turkey’s accession to the EU bring economic benefits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1183, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1183
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1183.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2. Henri L. F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2004. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 103-123, February.
    3. Selahattin Bekmez, 2002. "Sectoral Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 57-84, March.
    4. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    5. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
    7. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1550, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Arjan Lejour & Gerard Verweij & A. Mervar, 2007. "The economic effects Croatia's accession to the EU," CPB Document 154, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Arjan Lejour & Andrea Mervar & Gerard Verweij, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Working Papers 0705, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    4. Harun Ucak, 2011. "Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 180-198.
    5. Schukkink, Martijn & Niemann, Arne, 2012. "Portugal and the EU’s Eastern Enlargement: A logic of identity endorsement," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, July.
    6. Guisan, M. Carmen, 2005. "Human Capital, Population Growth and Industrial Development in Mexico and Turkey: A Comparative Analysis with Other OECD Countries, 1964-2004," Economic Development 85, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; regional economic integration; general equilibrium model; gravity equations; institutional reform; migration;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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