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Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU

  • Arjan Lejour


  • Ruud de Mooij
  • Clem Capel

We explore the economic implications of Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive, through cheaper imports and the benefits from trade creation. Dutch exports increase by around 20% (550 million euro). Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, economic growth in Turkey could increase more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that consumption per capita in Turkey could rise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU. For instance, Dutch exports to Turkey would rise by another 1.8 billion euro and income by 500 million euro.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Document with number 56.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:56
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  1. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  2. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
  3. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series 585, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  5. Henri L.F. De Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," ERSA conference papers ersa03p421, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  7. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  8. Wolfgang Quaisser & Alexandra Reppegather, 2004. "EU-Beitrittsreife der Türkei und Konsequenzen einer EU-Mitgliedschaft," Working Papers 252, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  9. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April.
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