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Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU


  • Arjan Lejour


  • Ruud de Mooij


  • Clem Capel


We explore the economic implications of Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive, through cheaper imports and the benefits from trade creation. Dutch exports increase by around 20% (550 million euro). Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, economic growth in Turkey could increase more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that consumption per capita in Turkey could rise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU. For instance, Dutch exports to Turkey would rise by another 1.8 billion euro and income by 500 million euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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    5. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
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    7. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Wolfgang Quaisser & Alexandra Reppegather, 2004. "EU-Beitrittsreife der Türkei und Konsequenzen einer EU-Mitgliedschaft," Working Papers 252, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2010. "Turkey and the European Union: Possible Incidence of the EU Accession on Migration Flows," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(3), pages 218-235.
    2. Antonucci, Daniele & Manzocchi, Stefano, 2006. "Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 157-169, June.
    3. Mehmet Ugur, 2010. "Open-Ended Membership Prospect and Commitment Credibility: Explaining the Deadlock in EU-Turkey Accession Negotiations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 967-991, September.
    4. F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170.
    5. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Grethe, Harald, 2004. "Turkey's Accession to the EU: What Will the Common Agricultural Policy Cost?," Working Paper Series 18821, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
    7. Elitok, Secil Pacaci & Straubhaar, Thomas, 2010. "Is Turkey still an emigration country?," HWWI Policy Papers 3-15, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    8. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 595, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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