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Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Arjan Lejour

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Ruud de Mooij
  • Clem Capel

Abstract

We explore the economic implications of Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers.Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive, through cheaper imports and the benefits from trade creation. Dutch exports increase by around 20% (550 million euro). Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour.If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, economic growth in Turkey could increase more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that consumption per capita in Turkey could rise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU. For instance, Dutch exports to Turkey would rise by another 1.8 billion euro and income by 500 million euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Grethe, Harald, 2005. "Turkey’s accession to the EU: what will the Common Agricultural Policy cost?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 54(02), pages 1-10.
    2. Elitok, Secil Pacaci & Straubhaar, Thomas, 2010. "Is Turkey still an emigration country?," HWWI Policy Papers 3-15, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2010. "Turkey and the European Union: Possible Incidence of the EU Accession on Migration Flows," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(3), pages 218-235.
    4. Antonucci, Daniele & Manzocchi, Stefano, 2006. "Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 157-169, June.
    5. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(4), pages 311-327, December.
    6. Mehmet Ugur, 2010. "Open‐Ended Membership Prospect and Commitment Credibility: Explaining the Deadlock in EU–Turkey Accession Negotiations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 967-991, September.
    7. Cirpici, Yasemin & Unal, Umut, 2011. "Türkiye-AB İlişkilerinin Dünü Bugünü [The Past of Turkey-EU Relations]," MPRA Paper 81437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Ugur, Mehmet, 2008. "Economic implications of Turkish EU membership: the advantages of tying one’s hands," MPRA Paper 18547, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    10. F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170, May.
    11. Cakmak, Erol H. & Dudu, Hasan, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis for Turkey," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152358, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    12. Erol H. Cakmak & Hasan Dudu, 2014. "Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food The case of Turkey," JRC Research Reports JRC84201, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 595, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. van Leeuwen, Nico & Lejour, Arjan & ten Cate, Arie, 2007. "The quality of Bilateral Services Trade data," Conference papers 331660, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Tausch, Arno, 2015. "Hofstede, Inglehart and beyond. New directions in empirical global value research," MPRA Paper 64282, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 May 2015.
    16. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    18. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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