IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aiea14/172964.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hasan, Dudu
  • Erol, Cakmak

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of climate change and trade liberalization on Turkish Economy between 2008 and 2099 by using a recursive dynamic CGE model. Results of a crop-irrigation requirement model are used to generate climate change shocks. The results suggest that the effects of climate change will be effective especially after 2030s with acceleration after 2060s. GDP loss gets as high as 3.5 percent. Main drivers of the loss in GDP are the significant decline in private consumption and up to two percent increase in imports. A trade liberalization scenario where tariffs on imports from EU are eliminated unilaterally by Turkey is also simulated to investigate the interaction between climate change and trade liberalization. Trade policy alleviates the negative effects of climate change only marginally for Turkey, as suggested by the literature for many other regions in the world. Trade liberalization with EU causes a trade diversion effect and decreases imports from other trading regions. The main adjustment mechanism of the economy under trade liberalization works through the substitution of factors for intermediate goods, imported consumption goods and intermediate inputs for domestic goods. Maize, oilseeds, fruits and processed food benefit from trade liberalization while production of other crops generally decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aiea14:172964
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.172964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/172964/files/CLIMATE%20CHANGE_%20AGRICULTURE%20AND%20TRADE_%20Dudu%20H..pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.172964?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    2. Randhir, Timothy O. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Trade Liberalization as a Vehicle for Adapting to Global Warming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 159-172, October.
    3. Selahattin Bekmez, 2002. "Sectoral Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 57-84, March.
    4. Fellmann, T. & von Leeuwen, M. & Salamon, P., 2012. "EU enlargement to Turkey: Potential impacts on agricultural markets and how they are shaped by changes in macroeconomis conditions," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 47, March.
    5. Laborde, David, 2011. "Climate Change and Agriculture In South Asia: Looking for An Optimal Trade Policy," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104526, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Reilly, John & Hohmann, Neil, 1993. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 306-312, May.
    7. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects," EcoMod2006 272100090, EcoMod.
    8. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "Turkish EU Membership: A Simulation Study of Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 10, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    10. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Francois, Joseph F. & McQueen, Matthew & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2005. "European Union-developing country FTAs: overview and analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1545-1565, October.
    12. Dudu, Hasan & Çakmak, Erol Hasan, 2013. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Turkish Economy: Selected Results from CGE Applications," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 310, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erol H. Cakmak & Hasan Dudu, 2014. "Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food The case of Turkey," JRC Research Reports JRC84201, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could free trade alleviate effects of climate change? A worldwide analysis with emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," WIDER Working Paper Series 100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis for Turkey," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152357, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could Free Trade Alleviate Effects of Climate Change: A Worldwide Analysis with Emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," Conference papers 332460, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Dissanayake, Sumali & Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2019. "Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 307-324.
    7. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    8. Shon M Ferguson & Johan Gars, 2020. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1094-1132.
    9. Sandy Dall'Erba & Zhangliang Chen & Noé J. Nava, 2021. "U.S. Interstate Trade Will Mitigate the Negative Impact of Climate Change on Crop Profit," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1720-1741, October.
    10. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Dragan Miljkovic & Emilia Lamonaca, 2021. "Agri-food trade and climate change," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18.
    11. Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
    12. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    13. Ugur, Mehmet, 2008. "Economic implications of Turkish EU membership: the advantages of tying one's hands," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 3984, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    14. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij, 2005. "Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 87-120, February.
    15. Ferguson, Shon & Gars, Johan, 2015. "Productivity Shocks, International Trade and Pass-Through: Evidence from Agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211646, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Ferguson, Shon & Gars, Johan, 2016. "Productivity Shocks, International Trade and Import Prices: Evidence from Agriculture," Working Paper Series 1107, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    17. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Li, Man, 2009. "Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 1-13, October.
    18. van Leeuwen, Nico & Lejour, Arjan & ten Cate, Arie, 2007. "The quality of Bilateral Services Trade data," Conference papers 331660, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Xie, Wei & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Cui, Qi & Robertson, Ricky & Chen, Kevin, 2020. "Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aiea14:172964. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aieaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.