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Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects

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  • Pekka Sulamaa
  • Mika Widgrén

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic effects of Turkish EU membership. The evaluation is based on a widely utilized computable general equilibrium model called GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Imperfect competition is modelled via assumption of scale economies on non agricultural sectors. The latest GTAP database version (base year 2001) is aggregated into seven regions: Turkey, Germany-Austria, North EU, South EU, Balkan countries, NAFTA, ASIA and Rest of World. We analyse economic effects of abolishing trade barriers between the EU25 and Turkey and applying common external tax on Turkey. Major sectoral effects are bound to originate from the agriculture which accounts 11.4 % of TurkeyÕs GDP.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects," EcoMod2006 272100090, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:002721:272100090
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    Cited by:

    1. Cakmak, Erol H. & Dudu, Hasan, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis for Turkey," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152358, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. Erol H. Cakmak & Hasan Dudu, 2014. "Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food The case of Turkey," JRC Research Reports JRC84201, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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