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Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects


  • Pekka Sulamaa
  • Mika Widgrén


This paper evaluates the economic effects of Turkish EU membership. The evaluation is based on a widely utilized computable general equilibrium model called GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Imperfect competition is modelled via assumption of scale economies on non agricultural sectors. The latest GTAP database version (base year 2001) is aggregated into seven regions: Turkey, Germany-Austria, North EU, South EU, Balkan countries, NAFTA, ASIA and Rest of World. We analyse economic effects of abolishing trade barriers between the EU25 and Turkey and applying common external tax on Turkey. Major sectoral effects are bound to originate from the agriculture which accounts 11.4 % of TurkeyÕs GDP.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, "undated". "Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects," EcoMod2006 272100090, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:002721:272100090

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bernard M. Hoekman & Togan Sübidey, 2005. "Turkey : Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7494.
    2. Francois, Joseph, 1998. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 317, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Howe, Howard & Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1979. "Theory and Time Series Estimation of the Quadratic Expenditure System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1231-1247, September.
    4. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    2. Cakmak, Erol H. & Dudu, Hasan, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis for Turkey," Proceedings Issues, 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152358, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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