Turkish EU Membership: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects
This paper evaluates the economic effects of Turkish EU membership. The evaluation is based on the widely utilized computable general equilibrium called model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Imperfect competition is modelled by existence of scale economies on non agricultural sectors. The latest GTAP database version (base year 2001) is aggregated into seven regions: Turkey, Germany-Austria, North EU, South EU, Balkan countries, NAFTA, ASIA and Rest of World. We analyse economic effects of abolishing trade barriers between the EU25 and Turkey and applying common external tax on Turkey. Turkish EU membership is clearly beneficial for Turkey and it does not seem to have significant negative impact for the rest of the world. If we take scale economies into account the aggregate effects are larger than in perfect competition case.
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