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Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Alvaro Calzadilla
  • Katrin Rehdanz
  • Richard Betts
  • Pete Falloon
  • Andy Wiltshire
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute)

Abstract

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard S.J. Tol, 2010. "Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture," Working Papers FNU-185, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:185
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Water Scarcity And The Impact Of Improved Irrigation Management: A Cge Analysis," Working Papers FNU-160, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2008.
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    5. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    7. Rehdanz, Katrin & Berrittella, Maria & S.J. Tol, Richard & Zhang, Jian, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 631-655.
    8. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "The Eonomic Impact Of More Sustainable Water Use In Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-169, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2008.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Zvi Baum & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik & Iddo Kan & Mickey Rapaport-Rom, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Water Scarcity Under Diverse Water Salinities," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Matthias Bruckner, 2012. "Climate change vulnerability and the identification of least developed countries," CDP Background Papers 015, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    4. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:06:y:2015:i:01:n:s2010007815500049 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:eee:jeeman:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:235-254 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, number 110558.
    8. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s201000781750004x is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:1172-:d:103569 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    11. Alberto Solís & Xueqin Zhu, 2015. "Water Markets: Insights from an Applied General Equilibrium Model for Extremadura, Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4335-4356, September.
    12. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    13. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100531, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could free trade alleviate effects of climate change? A worldwide analysis with emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," WIDER Working Paper Series 100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Alexander P. Helling & David S. Conner & Sarah N. Heiss & Linda S. Berlin, 2015. "Economic Analysis of Climate Change Best Management Practices in Vermont Agriculture," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 1-22, September.
    16. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Number 01), pages 1-30, November.
    17. repec:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1847-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ernest Acheampong & Nicholas Ozor & Eric Owusu, 2014. "Vulnerability assessment of Northern Ghana to climate variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 31-44, September.
    19. Anil Markandya, 2017. "State of Knowledge on Climate Change, Water, and Economics," World Bank Other Operational Studies 26491, The World Bank.
    20. Ponce, Roberto & Parrado, Ramiro & Stehr, Alejandra & Bosello, Francesco, 2016. "Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Economy-Wide Impacts in a CGE Framework," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 251813, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    21. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    22. Anne-Kathrin Faust & Camille Gonseth & Marc Vielle, 2012. "The economic impact of climate driven changes in water availability in Switzerland," EcoMod2012 4177, EcoMod.
    23. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    24. repec:eee:agiwat:v:187:y:2017:i:c:p:57-68 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Agriculture; Water Resources; River Flow;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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