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Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture

  • Alvaro Calzadilla
  • Katrin Rehdanz
  • Richard Betts
  • Pete Falloon
  • Andy Wiltshire
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()

    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/CalzadillaFNU185.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-185.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision: Apr 2010
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:185
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Web page: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/

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  1. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Water Scarcity And The Impact Of Improved Irrigation Management: A Cge Analysis," Working Papers FNU-160, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2008.
  2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "The Eonomic Impact Of More Sustainable Water Use In Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-169, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2008.
  3. Rehdanz, Katrin & Berrittella, Maria & S.J. Tol, Richard & Zhang, Jian, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 631-655.
  4. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Water Pricing: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-96, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2006.
  5. Peter Verburg & Bas Eickhout & Hans Meijl, 2008. "A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 57-77, March.
  6. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
  7. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  8. W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  9. Dudu, Hasan & Chumi, Sinqobile, 2008. "Economics of irrigation water management : a literature survey with focus on partial and general equilibrium models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4556, The World Bank.
  10. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  11. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of The South-North Water Transfer Project In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-117, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2006.
  12. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  13. Alvaro Calzadilla & Tingju Zhu & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol & Claudia Ringler, . "Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers FNU-170, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
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