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Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Calzadilla, Alvaro
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Rehdanz, Katrin
  • Tol, Richard S.J.
  • Ringler, Claudia

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25% for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation module, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, which considers detailed water-agriculture linkages, with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and nonagricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production (rainfed, irrigated or total), both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 150-165

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:150-165
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

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  1. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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  11. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: A CGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  12. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2005. "A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data January 2005," Working Papers 2005001, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
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  14. Inocencio, Arlene & Kikuchi, Masao & Tonosaki, Manabu & Maruyama, Atsushi & Merrey, Douglas & Sally, Hilmy & de Jong, Ijsbrand, 2007. "Costs and performance of irrigation projects: A comparison of Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions," IWMI Research Reports H036214, International Water Management Institute.
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