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Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Calzadilla, Alvaro
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Rehdanz, Katrin
  • Tol, Richard S.J.
  • Ringler, Claudia

Abstract

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25% for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation module, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, which considers detailed water-agriculture linkages, with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and nonagricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production (rainfed, irrigated or total), both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

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  • Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 150-165.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:150-165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.05.006
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    13. Michee Arnold Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & Carlos E. Ludena, 2017. "Agricultural productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and climatic effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 445-460, August.
    14. Tewodros Negash Kahsay & Onno Kuik & Roy Brouwer & Pieter Van Der Zaag, 2017. "The Economy-Wide Impacts Of Climate Change And Irrigation Development In The Nile Basin: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-30, February.
    15. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    16. Mayo, Robert, 2014. "The Cost of Climate Change in 19th Century Europe," MPRA Paper 98436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Teotónio, Carla & Rodríguez, Miguel & Roebeling, Peter & Fortes, Patrícia, 2020. "Water competition through the ‘water-energy’ nexus: Assessing the economic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Fundamental questions on the economics of climate adaptation: Outlines of a new research programme," UFZ Reports 05/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
    19. Martin Henseler & Ruth Delzeit & Marcel Adenäuer & Sarah Baum & Peter Kreins, 2020. "Nitrogen Tax and Set-Aside as Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies Under Global Change Scenarios: A Case Study for Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(2), pages 299-329, July.
    20. Sahoo, Amarendra & Shiferaw, Bekele & Gbegbelegbe, Sika, 2016. "Economywide impacts of promising agricultural technologies on food security and welfare in Kenya," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246960, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    21. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Ökonomische Grundfragen der Klimaanpassung: Umrisse eines neuen Forschungsprogramms," UFZ Reports 02/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
    22. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 245-255.
    23. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium; Climate change; Agriculture; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania

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