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The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Berrittella

    (University of Palermo)

  • Katrin Rehdanz

    (Hamburg University)

  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

Abstract

Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “market solution”. The market price for water adjusts such that supply and demand are equated again. In the third group of simulations the economic implications of China’s capital investment in infrastructure for the water South-North water transfer project is analyzed. Finally, the investment is combined with the increased capacity of water. If an increase in water supply in China leads to an increase in productivity of their water-intensive goods and services (non-market solution) this would result in a huge positive welfare effect from increased production and export. The effect on China’s welfare would still be positive, if a market for water would exist (market solution), but the world as a whole would lose. The negative effect for the rest of the world is largely explained by a deterioration of its terms-of-trade. Well functioning water markets in China are unlikely to exist.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    3. Michael Webber, 2012. "Making Capitalism in Rural China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14446, April.
    4. Rashid Hassan & James Thurlow, 2011. "Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(2), pages 235-247, March.
    5. Rehdanz, Katrin & Berrittella, Maria & S.J. Tol, Richard & Zhang, Jian, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 631-655.
    6. Roberto Ponce & Ramiro Parrado, 2015. "Climate Change, Water Scarcity on Agriculture and the Economy-Wide: impacts in the LAC Region," Serie Working Papers 16, Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics.
    7. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Water Scarcity And The Impact Of Improved Irrigation Management: A Cge Analysis," Working Papers FNU-160, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2008.
    8. Cakmak, Erol H. & Dudu, Hasan & Saracoglu, Sirin & Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Tsur, Yacov, 2008. "Macro-Micro Feedback Links Of Irrigation Water Management In Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4781, The World Bank.
    9. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "The GTAP-W model: Accounting for water use in agriculture," Kiel Working Papers 1745, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium; South-North Water Transfer Project; Water Policy; Water Scarcity;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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