The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “market solution”. The market price for water adjusts such that supply and demand are equated again. In the third group of simulations the economic implications of China’s capital investment in infrastructure for the water South-North water transfer project is analyzed. Finally, the investment is combined with the increased capacity of water. If an increase in water supply in China leads to an increase in productivity of their water-intensive goods and services (non-market solution) this would result in a huge positive welfare effect from increased production and export. The effect on China’s welfare would still be positive, if a market for water would exist (market solution), but the world as a whole would lose. The negative effect for the rest of the world is largely explained by a deterioration of its terms-of-trade. Well functioning water markets in China are unlikely to exist.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan|
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L., 1999.
"`When Water Is No Longer Heaven Sent: Comparative Pricing Analysis in an AGE Model,"
9905, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
- Decaluwé, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L., 1999. "When Water is no Longer Heaven Sent: Comparative Pricing Analysis in an AGE Model," Cahiers de recherche 9908, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
- Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry, 2003. "Can a water market avert the "double-whammy" of trade reform and lead to a "win-win" outcome?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 708-723, May.
- Noelwah R. Netusil & Thomas R. Harris & Chang K. Seung & Jeffrey E. Englin, 2000. "Impacts of water reallocation: A combined computable general equilibrium and recreation demand model approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 473-487.
- Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Water Pricing: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-96, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2006.
- Rosegrant, Mark W. & Cai, Ximing & Cline, Sarah A., 2002.
"Water and food to 2025,"
2020 vision briefs
13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- de Fraiture, Charlotte & Cai, X & Amarasinghe, Upali & Rosegrant, M. & Molden, David, 2004. "Does international cereal trade save water?: the impact of virtual water trade on global water use," IWMI Research Reports H035342, International Water Management Institute.
- repec:gta:gtapbk:7685 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dinar, Ariel & Yaron, Dan, 1992. "Adoption and abandonment of irrigation technologies," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 315-332, April.
- M. Kumar & O. Singh, 2005. "Virtual Water in Global Food and Water Policy Making: Is There a Need for Rethinking?," Water Resources Management, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 759-789, December.
- Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.