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Macro-Micro Feedback Links Of Irrigation Water Management In Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Cakmak, Erol H.

    () (The World Bank)

  • Dudu, Hasan

    (The World Bank)

  • Saracoglu, Sirin

    (The World Bank)

  • Diao, Xinshen

    (IFPRI)

  • Roe, Terry

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Tsur, Yacov

    (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Abstract

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Cakmak, Erol H. & Dudu, Hasan & Saracoglu, Sirin & Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Tsur, Yacov, 2008. "Macro-Micro Feedback Links Of Irrigation Water Management In Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4781, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4781
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goodman, D. Jay, 2000. "More Reservoirs Or Transfers? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Of Projected Water Shortages In The Arkansas River Basin," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
    2. Deborah Peterson & Gavan Dwyer & David Appels & Jane Fry, 2005. "Water Trade in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages 115-127, August.
    3. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Dwyer, Gavan & Loke, Paul & Appels, David & Stone, Susan F. & Peterson, Deborah C., 2005. "Integrating rural and urban water markets in south east Australia: Preliminary analysis," Conference/Workshop Proceedings 31909, Productivity Commission.
    5. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "A Calibration Method For Agricultural Economic Production Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 147-159.
    6. Esther Velázquez & M. Alejandro Cardenete & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, "undated". "Water Price and Water Relocation in Andalusia. A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600101, EcoMod.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Na Li & Xiaojun Wang & Minjun Shi & Hong Yang, 2015. "Economic Impacts of Total Water Use Control in the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China—An Integrated CGE-BEM Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6068, The World Bank.
    4. Hasan Dudu & Erol H. Cakmak, 2011. "Regional Impact of the Climate Change: A CGE Analysis for Turkey," Working Papers 644, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    5. Aziz Bouzaher & Sebnem Sahin & Erinç Yeldan, 2015. "HOW TO GO GREEN: a general equilibrium investigation of environmental policies for sustained growth with an application to Turkey’s economy," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 49-76, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium; Feedback links; Irrigation Water; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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