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Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability

Central banks’ international reserves have increased significantly in the recent past. While this accumulation has been widely perceived as precautionary savings to prevent financial crises, rising reserves might also endanger monetary and financial stability. This paper sheds new light on the implications for financial stability and assesses the consequences for monetary policy on theoretical and empirical grounds. Our estimation results show that the accumulation of reserves raises the inflation rate, both on the global and the individual-country level.

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Paper provided by Institute of Empirical Economic Research in its series Working Papers with number 84.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0084
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  1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," NBER Working Papers 15357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Tom Willett, 2007. "Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia," Working Papers 202007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," NBER Working Papers 14826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M., 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 6693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Rasmus Ruffer & Livio Stracca, 2007. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 120, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  9. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in an Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 812-815, November.
  12. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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