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Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Turkish Economy: Selected Results from CGE Applications


  • Dudu, Hasan

    (EC JRC-JRC IPTS, Sevilla, Spain)

  • Çakmak, Erol Hasan

    (TED University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey)


This study quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines a static regional and a dynamic national economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not be significant until late 2030s. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to design and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected, and irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Together, this causes significant decline in agricultural production and national welfare. Part of agriculture’s decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey’s food trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudu, Hasan & Çakmak, Erol Hasan, 2013. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Turkish Economy: Selected Results from CGE Applications," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 310, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:eyd:cp2013:310

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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).

    More about this item


    Computable general equilibrium; climate change; agriculture; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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