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Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?

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  • Arjan M. Lejour
  • Ruud A. de Mooij

Abstract

We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU‐membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive. European exports increase by around 20%. Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU‐membership, consumption per capita in Turkey could raise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU. Der Aufsatz untersucht die wirtschaftlichen Folgen eines möglichen Beitritts der Türkei zur Euro‐päischen Union. Das Schwergewicht liegt auf den drei wichtigsten Veränderungen, die mit einer Mit‐gliedschaft der Türkei einhergehen würden: (i) Zugang zum europäischen Binnenmarkt; (ii) Refor‐men der türkischen Institutionen als Folge der EU‐Mitgliedschaft; und (iii) Migration infolge der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer. Die makroökonomischen Folgen für die EU‐Länder sind gering, aber positiv. Europäische Exporte werden um ca. 20% steigen. Für die Türkei werden die wirtschaft‐lichen Gewinne höher sein als für die EU. Es wird geschätzt, dass die Konsumausgaben pro Kopf als Folge des Zugangs zum europäischen Binnenmarkt und der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer um etwa 4% steigen werden. Wenn es der Türkei gelingt, die internen Institutionen zu ändern, könnte der Konsum um weitere 9% steigen. Diese Gewinne würden sich auch auf die EU auswirken.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij, 2005. "Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 87-120, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:1:p:87-120
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00279.x
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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