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Eu Enlargement To Turkey: Potential Impacts On Agricultural Markets And How They Are Shaped By Changes In Macroeconomic Conditions


  • Fellmann, Thomas
  • van Leeuwen, Myrna
  • Salamon, Petra


The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling of the Turkish GDP growth rate would influence the accession impacts. Results of the Turkish EU-membership simulation show that the impacts on agricultural markets in Turkey are significant, while effects on EU markets are rather limited. The main impact on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of producer prices. With market prices and produced quantities declining, and as the coupled Turkish direct payments and the input subsidies will be replaced by lower payments of the CAP, agricultural income is expected to be reduced especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco). In contrast, accession effects on the Turkish livestock sector are projected to be positive, mainly due to lower feed costs. Furthermore, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. The further analysis reveals that in particular a depreciation of the Turkish lira alters the results of the accession scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Fellmann, Thomas & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Salamon, Petra, 2011. "Eu Enlargement To Turkey: Potential Impacts On Agricultural Markets And How They Are Shaped By Changes In Macroeconomic Conditions," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114507, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi11:114507

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koç & Gülden Bölük & Andrzej Tabeau & Roberto Esposti & Andrea Bonfiglio & Antonello Lobianco & Kevin Hanrahan, 2011. "Potential impacts on agricultural commodity markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey Extension of the AGMEMOD model towards Turkey and accession scenario," JRC Working Papers JRC60663, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    Cited by:

    1. Tuba Pekkirbizli & Mohamad Isam Almadani & Ludwig Theuvsen, 2015. "Food safety and quality assurance systems in Turkish agribusiness: an empirical analysis of determinants of adoption," ECONOMIA AGRO-ALIMENTARE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 17(3), pages 31-55.
    2. Hasan, Dudu & Erol, Cakmak, 2014. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Cge Analysis For Turkey," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 172964, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).

    More about this item


    Turkey; EU enlargement; agricultural markets; macro economy; AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung; Türkei; EU Erweiterung; Agrarmärkte; Makroökonomie; AGMEMOD; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance;

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